Some U.S. consumers have been cashing in their tax refunds early this year for a fresh pair of sneakers.
Needham & Company analyst Tom Nikic wrote in a new research note that his firm found that sneaker demand in February has been aided by consumers receiving their refunds, a wave a new product releases and continued discounting from retailers.
Nikic wrote that his firm tracked 30 sneaker launches that sold out quickly and are currently trading at resale premiums, which was a significant increase from 22 “high heat” launches in February 2025.
“While February is a small month for most softlines categories, sneaker brands usually release a lot of products, particularly tied to NBA All-Star Weekend,” he wrote.
Nikic also cited IRS data from Feb. 20 that said the average refund check this year has increased by approximately 10 percent year-over-year, or about $350 more than last year.
“Given how passionate sneakerheads are for athletic footwear, we believe that if they had a bigger windfall this year versus a year ago, sneakers would be a key beneficiary,” the analyst wrote. “It will be interesting to see if the momentum can carry through to March, which does not have the All-Star game catalyst and as of this point has fewer Jordan launches year-over-year and no [Nike] Dunk launches.”
The analyst also found that athletic and outdoor brands are continuing to use markdowns to drive sales. Nikic noted that in the direct-to-consumer channel, almost every athletic and outdoor brand that Needham tracks (the firm covers Nike, Crocs, Steve Madden, Under Armour, On and Deckers, among others) has recently seen year-over-year growth in the number of sale or clearance SKUs on their websites.
“We’ve also seen some incremental ‘headline promos’ from brands such as an extra 20 percent off promotion on Nike.com that we don’t believe was offered a year ago, as well as an extra 50 percent off event on Under Armour’s website (which compares unfavorably to the extra 30 percent off promo from a year ago),” Nikic wrote.
In the wholesale channel, the analyst’s firm also found “aggressive promotion” of athleticwear discounts in the sporting goods, sneaker specialty, and family footwear channels, including brand-specific discounts that suggest these brands have allowed retailers to break minimum-advertised-price restrictions.
“The athletic industry used to be a predominantly full-price industry, but discounting and promotion has picked up in recent years, and we think it’s possible that consumers have become acclimated to buying the category on discount, and it is proving difficult to get consumers to pay full-price again (unless it’s for brands that are extremely ‘hot,’ such as On),” Nikic added.
