TikTok Shop could soon be bigger than Walmart, a new report shows.
As e-commerce continues to grow rapidly, a new report from commerce agency Flywheel projects that ByteDance, the Chinese owner of TikTok Shop, could become a top-three global retailer across all categories by 2030.
The report estimates that TikTok Shop could be responsible for 14.6 percent of global marketplace share by 2030, driving roughly $1 trillion in sales. It also estimates that Amazon will take the number-one spot with a projected $1.1 trillion in sales, followed by another Chinese e-commerce platform, Pinduoduo, at number two.
Walmart, currently the biggest retailer in the world, is projected to rank number-five by then, making it the only retailer in the projected top-five whose sales are primarily made in-store versus online.
TikTok Shop is currently available in 17 countries including the U.S.; U.K.; European markets like France and Germany, and most of Southeast Asia. Douyin, which is the sister app of TikTok Shop available in mainland China, is responsible for much of ByteDance’s social commerce business. Market intelligence company ECDB reported Douyin’s GMV in 2024 exceeded $500 billion, far outpacing TikTok Shop’s performance in any other geography.
Still, TikTok Shop is growing fast globally and continues to roll out to additional countries. In the U.S., TikTok Shop is the largest social commerce platform and exceeded $15 billion in sales in 2025, per eMarketer. Beauty is the dominant category on TikTok Shop, with brands like Medicube, Tarte Cosmetics, WavyTalk and more being among the top beauty brands on the platform. Health and wellness, home goods and women’s apparel are also growing categories.
