American consumers are adding sneakers and boots to their holiday lists.
U.S. consumers will prioritize holiday gifting this year, even if that raises credit card debt, and there are indications that shoe buying will be on the agenda.
According to new research from The Consumer Collective, low- and middle-income households plan to spend this holiday season, despite inflation pressures. The consumer-focused advisory firm surveyed 1,000 U.S. adults in households that earn up to $75,000.
“While we did see more than a handful of respondents express concern about being able to afford gifts, or saying they would not buy any gifts this year due to their financial circumstances, most said they plan to shop — but they will strongly prioritize sale items, affordability and convenience,” The Consumer Collective’s cofounder and managing director Allison Collins said.
Rent, groceries and apparel top household budgets, with 57 percent stating they plan to buy apparel and 32 percent noting they plan to buy shoes. For , demand centers on sneakers and boots. As for purchase destinations, Amazon and Walmart were almost neck-to-neck, at 73 percent and 72 percent, respectively. Rounding out the top three was Target at 36 percent. Also high on the list were dollar stores.
Matt Priest, president and CEO of the Footwear Distributors and Retailers Association, said in a telephone interview that many of the footwear products firms front loaded in early pre-tariff deliveries — particularly in women’s shoes — have sold through. That means retailers are now selling product coming in under the new tariff structure. According to Priest, prices are going up but in a “more holistic way.”
As for how high those prices can go, Priest said: “Right now, everyone’s just kind of hanging tight seeing what kind of price elasticity that they have based on where consumer demand is. We have these two objects that don’t usually coexist together very well — higher prices and a consumer that says we need discounts. And so that’s why we’re concerned about the last quarter of the year heading into 2026.”
“They’re building out pricing strategies around tariffs and where they think they can bump up prices a little bit and where they may have to keep them steady and flat,” he said, emphasizing that “we are seeing prices going up at retail for footwear.” He added that the consumer will be voting with their dollar this holiday. “The products are there, we’re going to do the best we can and we’ll see some promotional activity. But I think there’s only so much you can do without totally destroying your margins,” the FDRA CEO said.
The latest data from the FDRA indicates that shoe prices rose in September in tandem with overall inflation. Retail prices of footwear climbed 1.3 percent, just shy of August’s 1.4 percent advance and represented the second fastest in seventeen months. And American Apparel & Footwear Association executive vice president Nate Herman told Footwear News that inflation shows a “chilling 2.8 percent increase for the women’s category” versus September 2024.
“Holiday 2025 will be full of surprises and challenges — from comparisons to the 2024 election impact and continuous economic uncertainty to the influence of social media and the spirit of the holiday season,” said Circana’s chief retail advisor Marshal Cohen.
In a report on Circana’s holiday retail outlook, Cohen said fashion-related spending, along with toys, could face challenges, compared with beauty, tech and home, which have the biggest opportunities to capture holiday purchases. And he found that holiday shoppers this year are cost-conscious, with free shipping, value and sales topping their list of things that will influence where they shop this season. The survey polled 3,595 U.S. consumers in September.
Shoppers still plan to spend more this year —$796 in 2025 versus $771 in 2024 and $754 in 2023 — with Millennials and Gen Z likely spending more this year than last and Gen X and boomers sticking to the same level of spend as last year. Cohen also found that 47 percent of consumers will use their smartphones to do their holiday shopping online as they seek convenience, while 37 percent said they will buy more items that are on sale this holiday season.
And Telsey Advisory Group (TAG) is projecting online sales growth for holiday to rise 8 percent, down from 10 percent last year and 12.9 percent in 2023. But that projection is also in-line with other industry forecasts, which includes a bit of uncertainty over how consumers will respond to tariff-related price increases.
“The big wildcard this holiday season is the impact of tariffs, particularly how much will be passed through to consumers and how they will handle inflation,” noted TAG’s chief investment officer Dana Telsey. TAG is also projecting that warehouse clubs will see sales growth rise 6.5 percent, while department stores will lag at down 5 percent.
BTIG’s Janine Stichter said that so far, consumers have proven “largely resilient so far, and inventory levels appear to be in decent shape heading into holiday.” But she also expects that with rising prices in response to tariffs, “we expect to see continued bifurcation in performance and those with strong brands and value proposition showing the most significant performance.”
A study from Invoice Home, an invoice template software firm, found in its second annual “Holiday Spending” survey that found Americans will prioritize gift giving, with 37 percent of respondents stating that buying gifts is more important than a credit card balance this season. The study, conducted with research firm Censuswide surveying 2,000 U.S. consumers aged 18 and up, found that 25 percent of U.S. consumers plan to use Buy Now, Pay Later programs to navigate their holiday spending plans. In addition, 27 percent of Millennials plan to go into credit card debt, up from 21 percent in 2024. And 40 percent of Gen Z plan to dip into savings, up from 32 percent last year.
In addition, 50 percent of respondents said they would not shop at a retailer during the holiday season if there was an increase in prices overall, up from 25 percent last year, while 25 percent cited an increase in the cost to return, up from 11 percent in 2024. Nearly half at 47 percent said they expect to spend the most on holiday purchases this year with Amazon, with 32 percent citing big-box retail discounters such as Walmart and Target. Shopping Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales was third at 25 percent, followed by small businesses at 18 percent.
