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    Nike’s Resurgence Is Giving Rivals Something Else to Worry About

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    Game on.

    Nike‘s better than expected first quarter earnings results could have its running rivals rethinking their growth expectations.

    Nike on Tuesday said it ended Aug. 31 with net income down 30.8 percent to $727 million, or 49 cents a diluted share. That was an easy beat to Wall Street’s expectations of 27 cents a share. Total revenues were up 1.1 percent to $11.72 billion, besting analysts’ average forecast of $10.99 billion.

    TD Cowen’s John Kernan said that Nike’s first quarter sales and earnings per share beat should be viewed as another building block towards a turnaround — with the next catalysts dependent on intra-quarter datapoints on average selling prices, digital traffic and retail partner results. (The Swoosh will report second-quarter results in December.)

    Nike earlier this year introduced new products, among them a revamped Vomero line that saw Vomero 18 surpass $100 million in sales. It was a notable win for the Swoosh that saw specialty retailers confirming this summer that the Nike Running comeback was very much on. The big question was always whether Nike sustain the new momentum?

    CEO Elliott Hill on Tuesday raised the stakes when he told analysts during a conference call that the company redirected 8,000 employees to its new marketing and operating initiative. Called Sport Offense, the theory is to align its three brands — Nike, Jordan and Converse — into teams by sport that should help the company give each brand its own distinct identity through innovative storytelling and connecting with the communities of athletes who buy Nike’s product.

    Hill said the early read was good, with North America leading the Win Now turnaround. And he said that while there were wins in performance running, the CEO acknowledged that there are other areas — such as sportswear, China and Nike Direct — that also require some attention.

    Drake MacFarlane, research analyst at M Science, said that with Nike going back into performance running, particularly towards a premium product, the company’s now challenging key competitors, including On, Hoka, and New Balance.

    “We know that Nike has been trying to reengage with retailers in the wholesale channel for awhile,” he said, noting that it appears that the company has done some discounting to incentivize retailers to reengage with the brand.

    That could be a problem particularly for On, according to Jefferies analyst Randal Konik. “This renewed momentum and retailer confidence suggest On could face mounting pressure to sustain its elevated wholesale growth, as Nike’s innovation and channel strategy reclaim share and reset competitive dynamics,” he explained, noting that Nike has redesigned key models and is introducing at least one major running style each season.

    And on the way this month are two major releases for Nike Running and Nike Basketball, the Vomero Premium and the LeBron 23, respectively. “This resurgence in running is not just a product story, it’s a strategic realignment that’s resonating with consumers and retailers alike,” the Jefferies analyst said. For On, which has built its brand on running footwear, Nike’s renewed momentum signals a tougher competitive landscape and a direct challenge to On’s growth narrative.”

    Konik said that Nike’s aggressive management of its classic franchises — Air Force 1, Dunk and Jordan 1 — plus the resetting of Converse, could hurt On, which has “largely benefited from rapid sell-in and expansion in Nike’s absence.” And with Nike’s discipline approach to inventory and channel management, the company’s challenging “On’s wholesale trajectory for the first time,” Konik said.



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