An independent study commissioned by SGAE, the Spanish PRO, says that by 2028, generative AI could reduce the revenue that goes to creators in Spain by about 28%, or more than 100 million euros. The report, “The Economic and Social Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Musical Creation and Its Effects on Other Cultural Fields,” used qualitative analysis to estimate that cost, in the absence of regulation that would protect creators and rightsholders, which it recommends instituting.

“Clear legislation is urgently needed to guarantee fair compensation for rights holders, traceability of the origin of the data used by AI for training, and explicit consent for the use of works,” the report says.  “Limits should be set on AI-generated music to preserve the diversity and viability of emerging authors and ensure fair compensation.” 

Conducted by Know Media, with support from University Carlos III in Madrid, the study represents the first significant research on this issue in Spain. It includes a survey of more than 1,200 music creators, of all styles and income levels. As in other countries, the study found that music creators have been quick to incorporate AI tools in their creation of music: 34% have already done so, and another 17% plan to do so soon. At least some of this adoption comes from a fear of being left behind, however. 

The study highlights the difference between “assistive AI,” which creators use for help in their process, and “generative AI,” which creates music without human involvement. Already, music created by generative AI is finding an audience on streaming services, taking revenue away from human creators. 

So far, other studies commissioned by collective management organizations have reached similar conclusions. Studies funded by CISAC (the trade organization), GEMA and SACEM (the German and French collective management organizations, respectively), and APRA AMCOS (the Australian CMO) have all found that while AI represents an opportunity, it also represents a potential threat. This is not far off: The SGAE study says that between 160 million Euros and 180 million euros are at risk between now and 2028. 

Unlike previous innovations that shaped music, “artificial Intelligence challenges the creation process itself,” said CISAC director general Gadi Oron in a foreword to the study. “The challenges it poses to the creative sector are, therefore, different and unprecedented, while the questions it raises for policymakers are unique and difficult.” 

Regulation can prevent the worst of these effects, the study suggests. “The demand for clear and effective regulation to safeguard creators’ rights is unanimous,” the report concludes. “Authors are calling on collective management societies and public authorities to establish mechanisms to protect human creation from AI’s disruptive effects.”