Saudi Arabia’s landmark mutual defence pact with Pakistan will not only strengthen Islamabad but also alter New Delhi’s security calculus, geopolitical analyst Ian Bremmer said in an interview with India Today TV.
Bremmer, President of Eurasia Group, stressed that the agreement “is going to change life for India, no question,” especially given the backdrop of recent tensions, including India’s military action under Operation Sindoor.
“If you’re India and you have an ongoing very severe border security issue with Pakistan… there’s a good chance we’re going to see another military altercation. Now if that happens and Saudi Arabia is committed to come to Pakistan’s defense, if I’m India that has to factor into my calculations. That’s going to change life for India, no question,” he said.
The Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement, signed in Riyadh during Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s visit, commits both countries to treat an attack on one as an attack on both. Reports also suggest the pact extends to Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities, allowing them to be considered part of Saudi Arabia’s defence in an emergency.
According to Bremmer, the pact cements long-running ties between Riyadh and Islamabad while adding a new layer of confidence for Pakistan. “Their principal ally remains China. That’s not changing anytime soon. That’s where they’re getting most of their military support, it’s where they’re getting most of their shared intelligence,” he said.
But Pakistan has also been cultivating newer relationships, he pointed out. “The fact that they have a better relationship with Trump through crypto investments and other investments, including with Trump’s own family, certainly makes Pakistan feel more welcome, more confident, stronger,” Bremmer said.
He also underlined that Saudi support for Pakistan’s nuclear programme has been no secret. “Yes, it is true that Saudi Arabia has been helping to fund Pakistan and their plutonium program for many, many years. And it had been an open secret that Saudi Arabia in an event of crisis considered Pakistan’s nuclear program to be Saudi Arabia’s emergency nuclear program if they ever needed it. That’s something that was discussed well before Trump became president,” Bremmer explained.
The new pact, however, formalises that understanding. “The fact that they are now openly declaring a collective security pact is a very significant new step forward,” he said.
Bremmer underlined that the deal marks a shift in Riyadh’s long-term approach to security. “It is an effort to diversify alliances, to rely less exclusively for security on the United States The need to ensure that they have a broader array of security partners around the world is growing. That’s why they made that decision,” he said.
The move, he argued, also bolsters Islamabad. “It’s going to make Pakistan feel like they are geopolitically stronger It had been an open secret that Saudi Arabia in the event of crisis considered Pakistan’s nuclear program to be Saudi Arabia’s emergency nuclear program if they ever needed it. But the fact that they are now openly declaring a collective security pact is a very significant new step forward.”
The pact comes after Israel’s strike in Qatar killed a Qatari security officer during an operation targeting Hamas leaders. Bremmer said Saudi Arabia was dissatisfied with Washington’s muted response. “The United States certainly didn’t do anything to stop it and they did very little to complain about it afterwards. There’s no punishment for Israel, and if you’re Saudi Arabia, that is an unacceptable response,” he said.
Meanwhile, India said it is closely monitoring the deal, with the Ministry of External Affairs reiterating that while India’s partnership with Saudi Arabia remains strong, it will take all necessary steps to safeguard its security.
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