The port city of Tianjin in China will be at the centre of global attention for the next two days as it hosts the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) summit, and most importantly the key bilateral meetings between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping and Russia’s Putin. The summit as well as the Modi-Xi-Putin talks are significant for India, coming amid a tariff barrage unleashed by Donald Trump that has soured its ties with the US.
Seven years have passed since PM Modi last set foot in China. His last visit, to Wuhan in 2018, came against the backdrop of the Doklam standoff. The circumstances are different this time, with India and China attempting to reset ties in light of the global economic churn brought by Trump’s trade policies.
On Sunday, PM Modi and the Chinese President will hold two bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the SCO summit. The next day, he will sit down for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
For Modi, the spectacle of him standing alongside Xi and Putin at the summit will send a pointed message to Trump.
Especially since in recent weeks, Trump and his officials have intensified their attacks on India over its purchase of Russian oil amid the war in Ukraine. White House adviser Peter Navarro went as far as to claim that the Ukraine conflict was essentially “Modi’s war”.
INDIA, CHINA HIT RESET BUTTON
However, the focus will remain on the outcome of the talks between Modi and Xi.
Last October, PM Modi and Xi broke the ice with their meeting in Kazan, Russia, after avoiding each other for years, even at multilateral forums. The meeting came after India and China agreed to disengage in the remaining two friction points along the LAC.
The ties between the Asian giants reached its lowest ebb after the border skirmishes in Galwan in 2020.
Even as recently as May this year, India saw China as its adversary, with Chinese defence systems aiding Pakistan during the hostilities.
However, nothing unites like a common enemy. And Trump seems to have done exactly that, undoing decades of American diplomacy to prop up India as a counterbalance to China.
‘DRAGON-ELEPHANT TANGO’
Underscoring the shift in relations, President Xi, earlier this year, called for Sino-Indian ties to take the form of “Dragon-Elephant tango” to serve their fundamental interests.
Last week, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi echoed the conciliatory tone during his visit to Delhi, urging the neighbours to see each other as “partners” rather than “adversaries or threats”.
During Wang Yi’s visit, the two sides agreed to resume direct flights and the issuance of visas to facilitate business and cultural exchanges. They also decided to re-open border trade through the designated trading points.
A key takeaway was the decision to revive the stalled dual-track strategy and not let border issues affect bilateral ties.
Even at the height of the diplomatic standoff, China remained India’s second-largest trading partner. Moreover, India still relies heavily on Chinese components and raw materials.
A steady India-China relationship, in the long term, could help soften the blow of US tariffs. With key Indian exports now facing 50% tariffs, access to Chinese markets, smoother cross-border trade and supply chain networks would help New Delhi reduce its dependence on the US market.
During Modi’s last visit to China, his bonhomie with Xi Jinping made headlines as the two leaders were seen taking a stroll by a lake and even enjoying a boat ride in Wuhan. Tianjin, where Sunday’s bilateral will be held, is situated near the scenic Bohai Sea. Will we see a Wuhan redux in 2025? Only time will tell.
– Ends
Tune In