As the world’s largest trading nation conducting 95 per cent of its international trade through sea lanes, China has systematically leveraged its economic might to establish a growing network of strategic ports and bases worldwide. This expansion represents a dramatic departure from China’s historical focus on regional concerns, positioning Beijing as a potential challenger to established powers in the global arena
Unlike the United States, which maintains over 128 overseas military bases across 51 countries with nearly 170,000 deployed personnel at an annual cost of $30-50 billion, China’s approach combines commercial port investments with selective military installations. This strategy contrasts sharply with India’s modest five overseas facilities focused on regional security, demonstrating China’s broader global ambitions and sophisticated understanding of how economic influence can translate into strategic leverage.
The Belt and Road Initiative: Foundation of China’s global reach
President Xi Jinping’s launch of the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013 marked a pivotal moment in China’s global strategy. The accompanying Twenty-First Century Maritime Silk Road, connecting China to Europe and the Arctic Ocean via the South China Sea and Indian Ocean, has supercharged China’s overseas port investment activities. Xi’s personal emphasis on port development was evident during his 2017 visit to Tieshan Port in Guangxi Province, where he declared: “We often say that to get rich we must first build roads; but in coastal areas, to get rich we must also first build ports.”
This initiative has yielded remarkable results. As of September 2023, China had signed seventy bilateral and regional shipping agreements with sixty-six countries and regions, creating shipping routes and service networks covering major countries and regions worldwide. Shanghai has retained its position as the world’s busiest container port for thirteen consecutive years, whilst several Chinese ports rank amongst the most connected globally according to the Liner Shipping Connectivity Index.
China’s domestic port infrastructure provides a telling indicator of its maritime capabilities. The country has become home to the world’s largest container ports, with Chinese facilities dominating global shipping connectivity rankings. This domestic strength serves as the foundation for China’s overseas expansion, providing the expertise, technology, and financial resources necessary for global port development projects.
Djibouti: China’s first overseas military base
China’s most significant overseas military installation is located at Djibouti’s Doraleh port, established in 2017 to support the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s anti-piracy missions in the Gulf of Aden. These operations have continued non-stop since 2008, providing China with legitimate justification for maintaining a permanent military presence in this strategically vital location.
The Djibouti base serves multiple purposes beyond anti-piracy operations. It provides logistical support for Chinese naval vessels operating in the Indian Ocean, enables humanitarian relief operations, and offers China its first permanent military foothold in Africa. The facility’s location at the mouth of the Red Sea, controlling access to the Suez Canal, makes it particularly valuable for monitoring global shipping lanes and projecting power into the Indian Ocean.
Cambodia: The Ream Naval Base development
The Ream Naval Base in Cambodia represents China’s second confirmed military facility abroad, though Beijing and Phnom Penh have been reluctant to officially characterise it as a Chinese base. Originally constructed as security-related aid to Cambodia, the facility has since been confirmed by Cambodian authorities as hosting Chinese military personnel and equipment.
Satellite imagery has revealed Chinese naval vessels docked at the newly upgraded facility for extended periods, indicating sustained Chinese military presence. The base’s strategic location in the South China Sea provides China with enhanced surveillance capabilities and power projection potential throughout Southeast Asia. This development has prompted serious concerns from the U.S. State Department regarding China’s plans for exclusive control over portions of the facility.
The Ream Naval Base highlights China’s ability to establish military facilities through diplomatic partnerships and economic assistance, avoiding the political complications associated with formal base agreements. This approach allows China to maintain plausible deniability whilst steadily expanding its military footprint.
Potential expansion sites: Intelligence assessments
U.S. intelligence agencies have identified numerous locations where China is reportedly considering establishing military facilities. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence’s annual assessment highlighted China’s pursuit of “overseas military installations and access agreements in an attempt to project power and protect China’s interests abroad.”
Potential locations include Burma, Cuba, Equatorial Guinea, Pakistan, Seychelles, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Tanzania, and the United Arab Emirates. A comprehensive study by the RAND Corporation ranked over 100 potential candidates based on desirability and feasibility, identifying Bangladesh, Cambodia, Myanmar, and Pakistan as most likely to meet Beijing’s requirements for future military facilities.
Analysis by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies concluded that China is most likely operating covert listening stations at four sites in Cuba, including three near Havana and one located just 64 kilometers west of U.S. Naval Station Guantanamo Bay. These facilities would provide China with unprecedented intelligence-gathering capabilities in America’s strategic backyard.
All identified potential host nations are participants in the Belt and Road Initiative, highlighting the connection between China’s economic investments and military expansion plans. Economic security and domestic regime legitimacy serve as primary drivers behind China’s inevitable military reach extending beyond its shores.
The dual-use strategy: Commercial ports with military potential
China’s most significant strategic advantage lies in its extensive network of commercially invested ports that possess dual-use potential. This approach allows China to maintain strategic flexibility without the political complications of formal military base agreements. When evaluating ports for potential military use, factors such as berth length and number, draft depth, deep-water access, and availability of transportation networks and fueling facilities become crucial considerations.
Ports with drafts between 12-15 metres can accommodate most Chinese naval vessels, including destroyers (6.5 metres draft), frigates (6 metres), aircraft carriers (11 metres), and cruisers (6.6 metres). Given that oil tankers and carriers average 16 metres draft, ports capable of handling commercial shipping can typically accommodate naval vessels as well.
The real leverage of Chinese overseas influence stems from varied degrees of investment and ownership in the world’s busiest and most-connected ports, which underpin global trade flows. China’s heavy investment in strategically located ports provides significant influence over supply chains and global trade logistics, creating dependencies that extend far beyond traditional military considerations.
Western governments have expressed increasing concern about China’s potential development of these commercial ports into naval bases. However, the growing scrutiny could make building formal naval bases less effective for Chinese power projection, making the dual-use commercial approach more attractive.
Economic leverage through debt diplomacy
China’s overseas port strategy extends beyond infrastructure development to encompass economic leverage through lending and investment. However, this approach has created significant vulnerabilities for recipient nations, with many countries facing economic instability under the weight of Chinese loans.
Countries most indebted to China, including Pakistan, Kenya, Zambia, Laos, and Mongolia, are devoting more than a third of government revenue to servicing foreign debt. Two nations, Zambia and Sri Lanka, have already defaulted, whilst others face imminent financial crisis. Pakistan’s textile industry has shed millions of jobs due to electricity shortages caused by the country’s inability to service foreign debt, whilst Kenya has delayed civil service salaries to preserve cash for loan repayments.
This debt burden carries geopolitical implications. Honduras cited “financial pressures” when establishing diplomatic ties with China whilst severing relations with Taiwan. Pakistan’s desperation to prevent blackouts led to energy deals with Russia, breaking ranks with U.S.-led sanctions efforts. In Sri Lanka, economic collapse triggered riots that stormed the presidential palace, forcing the leader associated with Chinese loan agreements to flee the country.
Research by AidData revealed at least $385 billion in hidden and underreported Chinese debt across 88 countries, with many nations in far worse financial condition than previously understood. The organisation discovered that Chinese loans often include clauses requiring borrowing countries to deposit foreign currency in secret escrow accounts, effectively jumping to the front of the creditor repayment line.
Strategic implications and global responses
China’s expanding network of strategic ports and bases represents a fundamental challenge to existing global power structures. Unlike the United States, which maintains extensive military infrastructure through formal alliance systems, China’s approach leverages economic partnerships and commercial investments to achieve strategic objectives.
The Chinese model offers several advantages over traditional military base agreements. Commercial port investments face less political resistance than military installations, provide legitimate economic benefits to host nations, and create long-term dependencies that extend beyond simple access agreements. This approach allows China to maintain strategic flexibility whilst avoiding the political complications associated with formal military alliances.
However, China’s strategy also faces significant challenges. Growing Western scrutiny has made recipient nations more cautious about Chinese investments, particularly those with potential military applications. The debt sustainability crisis affecting many Belt and Road participants threatens to undermine Chinese influence in key regions. Additionally, the lack of formal military alliances means China cannot rely on the same level of commitment from host nations as traditional alliance partners provide.
Compared to India’s focused regional approach with five strategically positioned facilities, China’s global ambitions require significantly greater resources and carry higher political risks. India’s installations in Tajikistan, Bhutan, Mauritius, Oman, and Singapore reflect a more modest but regionally coherent strategy designed to address immediate security concerns rather than global power projection.
Future trajectory and challenges
China’s pursuit of overseas military installations faces similar challenges to those confronted by established powers. Host nations retain ultimate sovereignty over their territory and can restrict or revoke access agreements, particularly following government changes. Public opposition in host countries may limit the utility of facilities during contingencies, whilst diplomatic tensions can complicate operational planning.
The timeline for China’s global expansion appears ambitious yet achievable. U.S. intelligence assessments suggest China could establish a burgeoning network of overseas bases by the end of this decade, potentially challenging American global dominance. However, this expansion will require careful navigation of political sensitivities, economic constraints, and security concerns.
China’s expanding network of strategic ports and bases represents a paradigm shift in global power projection, combining commercial investments with selective military installations to challenge established hierarchies. Through the Belt and Road Initiative and strategic port investments, China has created a global network of dual-use facilities that provide economic leverage whilst offering potential military applications.
With confirmed installations in Djibouti and Cambodia, plus potential expansion sites across multiple continents, China’s overseas presence reflects broader ambitions to establish itself as a global power capable of protecting its interests worldwide. This expansion contrasts sharply with the United States’ extensive formal military network and India’s modest regional facilities, demonstrating China’s unique approach to strategic competition.
The success of China’s strategy will depend on its ability to manage host nation relationships, address debt sustainability concerns, and navigate increasing Western scrutiny of its activities. As this competition intensifies, the global strategic environment will likely become increasingly complex, with traditional concepts of spheres of influence giving way to overlapping networks of economic and military partnerships that span continents and reshape international relations for decades to come.
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