Back-to-school shopping (bts) is back again — and this time it looks a lot different.
Concern over tariffs is front and center this year, along with its impact on shoe prices. Parents this year are making “value” decisions based on where they can get the most bang for their buck, according to several studies.
“Inflation remains a major concern for both American consumers and businesses, especially as high tariffs are now in place across all of the industry’s major supplier countries,” said American Apparel & Footwear Association president and CEO Steve Lamar. He said June’s consumer price index report shows that the added costs are beginning to filter through in different parts of the economy, which will present a challenge to budget-conscious consumers.
“Many footwear companies thoughtfully took advantage of the temporary tariff pauses earlier this summer to ensure a successful back-to-school season. But now, with those pauses expiring, executives are trying to determine whether tariffs will suddenly increase on products they’ve already priced and ordered, many of which are set to arrive in the coming weeks and months for the holiday season,” Lamar added. “Companies are navigating a chaotic trade environment as they work to deliver high-quality, authentic products at reasonable prices. We are waiting for the other shoe to drop on tariffs, while consumers are bracing for the price of those shoes to rise.”
Meanwhile, footwear retailers have been busy honing their assortment mix and communicating their value proposition to parents.
“Back-to-school is an exciting time for us at DSW as a family footwear destination, featuring the broadest assortment of any brick-and-mortar footwear retailer,” said DSW president Laura Davis. “Knowing that today’s customer is more value-conscious, we are evolving our approach to how we communicate our value proposition across pricing and promotions, emphasizing more visible and purposeful in-store marketing.” She added that the retailer is providing consumers with special deals and in-store events.
Davis said that, in addition to an assortment of national and exclusive brands, DSW’s shopping experience will include service offerings that include Imbox Protection — a water-based solution to protect shoes against water, stains and color-fading — and Aetrex’s foot-scanning technology.
Against a backdrop of tariff caution, Rack Room senior vice president and chief merchandising officer Brian Burnett said, “We are going to maintain our laser focus on providing our customers with the best value, brands and styles for the entire family.”
Molly Hartney, Rack Room’s chief digital officer, added that the retailer’s marketing strategy is centered around its core value proposition, such as BOGO (buy one, get one 50 percent off); everyday free shipping for rewards members; buy online, pick up in store; and rewards benefits. According to key data points from a bts study from Deloitte, Gen Z and millennial parents expect to rely more on social media as they hunt for deals, with 54 percent of millennials using it for price comparison, versus 53 percent of Gen Z respondents. In general, 41 percent of bts shoppers plan to use social media for their shopping, while 71 percent of consumers said they are willing to wait longer for delivery if that means free shipping.
The Deloitte study also found that consumers plan to spend about $570 per child, or $16 less than last year’s $586.
In a survey from AlixPartners in partnership with the Footwear Distributors & Retailers of America, 16 percent of respondents said they expect tariffs will cause shoe prices to increase by 10 percent or less, with 34 percent expecting price hikes to range from 10 percent to 25 percent.
Brands that offer value without compromising on comfort or style are the mostly likely winners, the AlixPartners survey found. By shoe category, athletic/athleisure shoes saw a projected 28 percent year-over-year increase in spend versus 2024 levels. In contrast, fashion-first retailers might struggle to get sales, as the fashion/dress shoes or boots category only saw a 3 percent increase in projected spend when compared with 2024 levels. In addition, 73 percent of Gen Z and millennial parents said they’d skip trend-driven footwear styles in favor of “durability and price.”
For now, U.S. retail sales are holding their own. Last month, the U.S. Census Bureau said total retail sales for April 2025 through June 2025 rose 4.1 percent versus the same year-ago period.
“What we’ve seen in the past few years is consumers pulling purchases forward for these big occasions when they’re concerned,” said John Mercer, head of global research at Coresight Research. “And also, especially with tariffs, they are getting in ahead of [duty increases] and pulling some of that spending forward.”
Mercer also believes there’s another reason why retail sales are still up. “There haven’t been big price hikes, nor have there been product shortages yet. And as tariffs keep getting kicked back, that’s kind of out-of-sight, out-of-mind for consumers,” he said. Coresight expects U.S. back-to-school sales this year to grow 3.3 percent to $33.3 billion.
As for back-to-school product and promotions, Fitch Ratings senior director David Silverman noted: “As expected, many of the largest retailers are targeting limited price inflation, as they manage their supply chain to offset the impact of tariffs and potentially absorb some of the increase to maintain pricing positions. Smaller retailers will be less able to mitigate and absorb tariffs, which could cause a widening price discrepancy over time.”