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    Who Could Be the Video Vanguard Recipient at the 2025 MTV Video Music Awards? Our Eight Best Guesses

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    The nominations were just announced for this year’s VMAs, but the Video Vanguard recipient remains a mystery. Here’s who we think would be the most logical picks.

    On Tuesday (Aug. 5), MTV announced the nominees for the 42nd annual Video Music Awards. Lady Gaga led nominations with 12, while her “Die With a Smile” collaborator Bruno Mars was just behind her with 11, with big names like Kendrick Lamar and Sabrina Carpenter trailing shortly behind that pair. While we now know the nominees for marquee categories like video and artist of the year, one award remains remains a mystery for the Sept. 7 VMAs: The Michael Jackson Video Vanguard award.

    The lifetime achievement award, which dates back to the first-ever VMAs in 1984 and has been given out annually since (with occasional gaps, most recently for the pandemic-stricken first two years of the 2020s), is given to reward “outstanding contributions” and “profound impact” on music videos and popular culture. It’s named after Michael Jackson, arguably the most outstanding artist in music video history, and has been handed out over the decades to video luminaries ranging from David Bowie and The Rolling Stones to Beyoncé and Missy Elliott. Most recently, the Video Vanguard has been awarded to global pop superstars Shakira (2023) and Katy Perry (2024).

    Who will be the 2025 recipient? As we did last year — correctly predicting Perry as the ’24 honoree — Billboard decided to take a crack at predicting who will get the award this year. We started with some of the biggest and most legendary artists yet to receive the award, and filtered our list through factors like contemporary relevance, promotional considerations and the simple likelihood of the artist being willing to show up to deliver a speech and career-spanning medley performance, as has been customary of honorees for most of the past decade.

    Here are our eight best guesses for the 2025 Video Vanguard recipient, ranked (roughly) from least to most likely.



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