For long, the high-value US market has driven the growth of the storied Indian generic drugs industry, where companies like Cipla, Sun Pharma and Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, among others, have successfully challenged hundreds of off-patent drugs in the US and established a soaring business there.

In FY24, India exported $8.7 billion (Rs 76,113 crore) worth of pharma products to the US, which comprises over 11 per cent of India’s total merchandise exports to that country.

In the same period, India exported $77.5 billion (Rs 6.8 lakh crore) worth of merchandise goods to the US and imported $42.2 billion (Rs 3.7 lakh crore) worth of goods from it, resulting in a trade surplus of $35.3 billion (Rs 3 lakh crore) in India’s favour.

The US is India’s largest destination for pharma exports, accounting for over 31 per cent of the country’s total pharmaceutical exports. As much as 47 per cent of all generics consumed in the US are imported from India.

However, the Donald Trump administration’s threat of imposition of a 25 per cent reciprocal tariff from August 1 (up from 0 to 6.7 per cent at present) has thrown the Indian pharma industry in a bind. Shares of Indian pharma companies, led by Sun Pharma, fell close to 6 per cent on the NSE (National Stock Exchange) on August 1 following president Trump’s statements on the tariff imposition, and his letters to 17 top US pharma companies asking them to reduce their rates in line with what prevailed in other countries. Some fear Trump may send a similar letter to Sun Pharma, which earns as much as 20 per cent of its total revenues from the US market.

The Indian industry was hoping against hope that Trump would not hike tariffs on generic drugs since these are life-saving. However, Trump had indicated earlier this year too that tariffs on pharma products would be 25 per cent from April 2 onwards, without pinpointing any nation. He later gave a 90-day reprieve to countries, and the new deadline for the tariffs was put as August 1.

India imports roughly $800 million worth of pharmaceutical products from the US, and imposes a tariff of 10 per cent. Experts say that even if higher tariffs are imposed on active pharma ingredients (APIs), which are raw materials going into pharma production, India could still be competitive, if tariffs on other API-supplying countries are higher than that of India.

Moreover, the US will still be dependent on countries like India since the cost of manufacturing certain drugs in the US would be at least six times compared to that of manufacturing the same product in India, say industry sources.

The US market, which relies heavily on India for APIs and low-cost generics, would struggle to find alternatives, according to Namit Joshi, chairman of Pharmexcil (Pharmaceuticals Export Promotion Council of India). “Efforts to shift pharmaceutical manufacturing and API production to other countries or within the US will take at least 3-5 years to establish meaningful capacity,” he was quoted in media reports.

“There is no need for panic. The industry should lie low for now since the US has not yet increased the tariffs. Who else can give the US such competitively-priced goods in large quantities and high quality?” Daara Patel, secretary general of the Indian Drug Manufacturers Association, had said in an interview to INDIA TODAY in April.

“Even if it increases up to 10 per cent, the industry should be able to absorb it or pass it on to the US consumers. They would not mind paying for it since it all works on insurance money,” he explained.

But what if the US decides to go for a higher tariff? “In case the US raises tariffs beyond 15 per cent, India will have to look at newer markets in East Africa and the Middle East. These markets are neither high value nor high in volumes, but it will be a better option than dealing with an uncertain US market alone,” Patel had said

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