The fertility rate in the United States has dropped to its lowest point in history. In 2024, the average number of children per woman in the country fell below 1.6, according to new data released by the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Thursday.
This number is far below what experts call the “replacement rate” — around 2.1 children per woman — which ensures that each generation can replace itself. The US once stood apart from other developed countries by meeting or exceeding this level. But over the past two decades, the rate has steadily declined.
According to experts, more women are delaying motherhood, and some are opting not to have children at all. The World Bank data states the current fertility rate in the US is comparable to that of many western European nations.
GOVERNMENT RESPONDS WITH FERTILITY PUSH
The Trump administration has begun to act in response to the ongoing decline. In an effort to lower the cost and increase access to in vitro fertilisation (IVF), the government recently issued an executive order. Additionally, there is support for a “baby bonus.”
The goal of providing financial assistance is to encourage more families to expand, particularly as the cost of raising a child in the US rises.
Despite these efforts, some experts say there’s no need to panic.
“We’re seeing this as part of an ongoing process of fertility delay,” said Leslie Root, a population policy researcher at the University of Colorado Boulder. “We know that the US population is still growing, and we still have a natural increase — more births than deaths.”
MONEY, MARRIAGE, AND MODERN CHALLENGES
Social scientists believe the reasons for this decline are complex. Many women are postponing childbirth until their 30s or 40s. Some never become parents at all. Financial concerns are a major factor.
“Worry is not a good moment to have kids,” said Karen Guzzo, director of the Carolina Population Center at the University of North Carolina. “People are marrying later and also worried about their ability to have the money, health insurance, and other resources needed to raise children in a stable environment.”
The Trump administration’s strategy might not go far enough, Guzzo added. IVF and baby bonuses might benefit some people, but they don’t address more serious issues like the lack of paid parental leave and reasonably priced child care.
“The things that they are doing are really symbolic and not likely to budge things for real Americans,” she said.
The CDC’s new report also found that there was a 1% increase in the total number of babies born in the US last year — about 33,000 more than the previous year. That brought the total number of births in 2024 to slightly over 3.6 million.
However, there’s a twist. Earlier provisional data suggested women in their late 20s and 30s were having more children. But the more complete review of birth certificates painted a different picture: birth rates actually declined for women in their 20s and early 30s, and remained the same for women in their late 30s.
What caused the change? According to the CDC, the difference came from updated population estimates from the US Census, which are used to calculate birth rates.
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With inputs from Associated Press