India’s hopes of bouncing back in the Test series against England may not just depend on runs and wickets — the skies over Birmingham could have the final say. After a heavy loss in Leeds, Shubman Gill and his men head to Edgbaston with the intent to square the series. But with the weather looking far from ideal, their road to redemption could be a soggy one.

The opening Test of the India-England series at Leeds was dominated by batters, but it was India who led the charge with the willow. While England managed just one century, Indian batters racked up five across the match, taking full advantage of a surface that offered little assistance to bowlers. The game, however, lacked sustained momentum due to multiple rain interruptions, which not only broke the flow of play but also disrupted the rhythm of both teams at crucial junctures.

As the series heads to Edgbaston for the second Test, the script promises to be far less predictable. Birmingham’s ever-changing weather is expected to play a pivotal role, with rain forecast ahead of the opening day’s play. Conditions are likely to remain overcast through the morning, which could inject life into the pitch and offer bowlers the kind of movement they were starved of in Leeds. For both India and England, adapting quickly to these shifting variables could be the key to taking control in Birmingham.

Rain threatens a stop-start beginning

The second Test in Birmingham could begin on a damp note, quite literally. With rain expected early in the morning on July 2 — around 9 and 10 AM local time (1:30 and 2:30 PM IST) — there’s a real chance that the 11 AM toss (3:30 PM IST) and first ball might be pushed back. Evening showers are also on the radar around 7 PM (11:30 PM IST), setting up the prospect of a fragmented opening day.

What makes things even more tricky is the thick cloud cover that’s expected to linger through most of the day. For the bowlers, this might finally be a welcome change from the batter-dominated Leeds Test. The pitch may look friendly to bat on, but under dark skies, it’s the fast bowlers who could enjoy the early advantage — if the rain allows enough play.

A toss that could shift momentum

In conditions like these, the toss isn’t just ceremonial — it could be decisive. With early movement in the air almost guaranteed, the captain who wins it may be tempted to unleash their pace attack straightaway. Both sides know the value of first-day wickets, especially in a Test that might lose chunks of time later.

Clearer skies, but only briefly

Day 2 (July 3) offers some respite, with only a slim chance of rain and some sunshine expected — ideal for batting. Day 3 (July 4) should remain dry too, although the heavy cloud cover might keep things interesting for the seamers. These two days could be the most uninterrupted part of the match — and could define whether either team gets ahead.

For India, this window might be vital. If they’re chasing the game or need to build scoreboard pressure, they’ll have to make every over count here. England, with a 1-0 lead, will want to keep them under pressure throughout.

Rain set to return for the weekend

The weather, though, is forecast to take a turn again by Saturday and Sunday (July 5 and 6). Showers are expected to dominate the final two days, with rain chances going over 60% on Day 4 and peaking above 90% on Day 5. With this level of disruption expected, it’s quite possible that we don’t even get a full day’s play across the weekend.

Forecasts from various services paint a similar picture: intermittent play, long delays, and the constant looming threat of rain breaking rhythm.

Will the match beat the weather?

That’s the big question. With three of five days under serious threat from rain, both teams will need to be smart with their time and tactics. England, full of confidence after their dominant win in Leeds, will want to put India under pressure early. India, meanwhile, will be hoping for not just a strong showing — but enough time on the field to make it count.

ENG vs IND, Edgbaston pitch condition

The pitch is expected to offer a textbook English start—lush grass on top and a dry base underneath—perfect ingredients for swing and seam. With 11mm of grass reported just two days before the match and cloudy weather in the forecast, pacers should find plenty of assistance on Day 1. History backs the bowl-first strategy here too, with teams opting to bowl first winning 23 out of 56 Tests at this venue.

But Edgbaston has its own rhythm. By Day 2 and 3, the surface generally eases out, providing truer bounce and allowing batters to settle in. Partnerships tend to flourish once the new ball threat fades. However, the narrative could shift again in the final stretch. While the venue hasn’t traditionally favoured spin—spinners average over 44 per wicket this decade—Day 4 and 5 could bring them into the game as footmarks and cracks begin to appear. India, if they include Kuldeep Yadav or Washington Sundar, might look to exploit whatever assistance the surface eventually offers, especially if it mirrors the gripping fifth-day finish witnessed at Headingley.

– Ends