NEW DELHI: “I want to contest assembly polls for the sake of Bihar – to realise my dream of Bihar First, Bihari First.”“I would not contest the election from Bihar, but for Bihar.”‘Will not rest till I make Bihar a developed state’These remarks from LJP (Ram Vilas) chief Chirag Paswan, who has announced his decision to contest the Bihar assembly elections later this year, interestingly sound more like an opposition leader than an ally of the ruling coalition. Chirag, who is a Union minister in the Modi government, has not joined the Nitish Kumar government, but is part of the NDA in Bihar.Bihar has been ruled by the NDA, which comprises the BJP, JD(U) and other smaller parties including the LJP, most of the last 20 years under the leadership of Nitish Kumar. There were times in between when Nitish, who is called the Palturam of Bihar politics, switched sides and formed government with the RJD and Congress. But all these experiments were short-lived.So, why is Chirag Paswan seeking votes to build a “developed Bihar.” Is he targeting the opposition RJD and Congress or is he making a pitch against Nitish Kumar, who has been at the helm in the last two decades.Chirag has also claimed that “hurdles are being put in his way.”“Many people are jittery that I want to come to Bihar. Hurdles are being put in my way. But I am not going to dissuaded. Earlier attempts to break me by causing a split in my party and a rift in my family have failed to dishearten me,” the LJP leader has claimed in his various speeches.So, the big question is “Who is jittery? Who is trying to put hurdles in his dream for “Bihar first, Bihari first”?Well, certainly not the opposition Mahagathbandhan of RJD and Congress. The track record of Chirag Paswan in assembly elections has been anything but impressive. Let’s analyse the results of 2020 assembly elections and some of the remarks made by Chirag then to understand who could be jittery of him.Chirag, who in 2020 called for Nitish-free Bihar and coined the term “Asambhav Nitish”, had this to say after the last assembly elections: “It was my aim to dent JD(U) and I worked on it. I also focused that we should not affect the BJP and asked my workers to support it. My aim was to provide more seats to BJP and damage to JD(U). The LJP will improve its performance in 2025.” In 2020, Chirag’s party contested 137 seats but could win just one. Its candidates finished second in nine constituencies. However, by cutting into the votes of Nitish Kumar’s party, it ensured that for the first time the BJP with 74 seats became the senior partner of the coalition in Bihar and JD(U) with only 43 seats was pushed to being a junior partner.In the run up to the 2020 elections, the BJP kept Chirag away and included his uncle, Pashupati Kumar Paras, who had rebelled after the death of Ram Vilas Paswan and split the party into two. However, ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, BJP got back Chirag into its fold and dumped his uncle Pashupati.That move gave boost to political career of Chirag, who went on to win all the 5 Lok Sabha seats that his party contested as part of NDA. Now, with Chirag staking claim for a greater role in the run up to the assembly elections, his target is obvious. That the BJP will emerge as the largest party in the ruling NDA is a given. What will be interesting to see is how much can Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) gain this time? Or does it slide further? Several state BJP leaders have maintained that the Bihar elections will be fought under the leadership of Nitish Kumar. The BJP realises the importance of having Nitish on its side in the elections. The caste survey that Nitish got conducted has proved that the Bihar chief minister has the backing of the largest group of voter base in the state. However, this still does not guarantee that Nitish Kumar will be made the chief minister again by the coalition partners. However, political analyst Kumar Vijay feels that this time around Chirag may not be successful as he was five years ago as he is a part of the coalition and also Nitish and his close aides are ready for the challenges within. He also feels that Chirag’s claim of Bihar first Bihari first may not have many takers.“In the last Lok Sabha elections, Chirag gave tickets to many of his relatives ignoring the party cadres. So his claim of Bihar first and Bihari first is now being viewed with suspicion. Also, unlike Lok Sabha polls where PM Modi’s campaigning helped all allies in Bihar, Chirag and his party are likely to get limited advantage by virtue of being NDA ally,” said Kumar Vijay, who has followed Bihar politics closely for several years.“Chirag Paswan is an example of caste pressure group which dominates today’s politics. He has following in his caste group and that may help him to some extent,” Kumar Vijay says.If Chirag Paswan ends up winning some seats, the road ahead for Nitish Kumar could be difficult. A weakened JD(U) will see the Bihar chief minister losing his bargaining power. More so, in the light of his reported health issues, which has been raised by the opposition time and again.