The intensification of great power competition in the 21st century has transformed Pakistan from a peripheral actor into a central prize in the strategic rivalry between the United States and China. This “New Great Game” represents a contemporary iteration of classical geopolitical competition, wherein major powers vie for influence over strategically located middle powers. Pakistan’s unique position—as the sole Muslim nuclear power, a gateway to Central Asia, and a critical node in China’s Belt and Road Initiative—has made it an indispensable asset for both Beijing and Washington in their broader competition for global influence.
Pakistan’s strategic value derives not merely from its geographical location, but from its ability to serve multiple functions simultaneously: as China’s corridor to the Arabian Sea, America’s security lever in South Asia, and a potential source of critical minerals essential to modern warfare and technology. The recent Chinese loan rollover of $3.4 billion and President Trump’s hosting of Pakistan’s Army Chief at the White House exemplify the heightened attention both superpowers are directing towards Islamabad.
China’s strategic approach: The CPEC paradigm
China’s engagement with Pakistan represents a long-term strategic investment designed to address fundamental vulnerabilities in Beijing’s global position. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), launched in 2013 with over $62 billion in committed investments, serves as the flagship project of China’s Belt and Road Initiative in South Asia. However, CPEC’s significance extends far beyond infrastructure development.
The development of Gwadar Port, situated at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, constitutes China’s most significant strategic asset in the region. This deep-water port provides Beijing with direct access to energy-rich West Asia whilst circumventing the vulnerable Malacca Strait, through which approximately 80% of China’s oil imports currently transit. The recent $3.4 billion loan rollover—comprising $2.1 billion in reserve deposits and $1.3 billion in refinancing—demonstrates China’s commitment to maintaining this strategic relationship regardless of Pakistan’s economic difficulties.
China’s approach to Pakistan can be characterised as “strategic patience”—providing unconditional financial support whilst gradually building institutional dependencies. Unlike Western donors, Chinese assistance comes without governance conditionalities or human rights requirements, making it particularly attractive to Pakistan’s military establishment. This approach has enabled China to secure not only commercial advantages but also potential military positioning in the Indian Ocean region.
American recalibration: The Trump doctrine
The Trump administration’s approach to Pakistan marked a significant departure from previous American policies, which had oscillated between engagement and estrangement based on Pakistan’s cooperation in counterterrorism operations. The June 2025 White House lunch hosted by President Trump for Pakistan’s Army Chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, symbolised a new American strategy focused on direct engagement with Pakistan’s military leadership rather than its civilian government.
This approach reflects a pragmatic acknowledgement of Pakistan’s power structures and an attempt to counterbalance Chinese influence through military-to-military cooperation. The approval of a $397 million upgrade package for Pakistan’s F-16 fighter aircraft, concurrent with discussions of F-35 sales to India, demonstrates America’s willingness to compartmentalise its South Asian relationships rather than viewing them through a zero-sum lens.
The American strategy appears designed to prevent Pakistan’s complete drift into China’s sphere of influence whilst maintaining flexibility in broader South Asian policy. By engaging directly with Pakistan’s military leadership, Washington seeks to preserve intelligence cooperation, maintain access to Central Asian operations, and ensure continued Pakistani cooperation in regional security matters.
The resource dimension: Rare earth elements and strategic competition
An often-overlooked aspect of the Sino-American competition in Pakistan concerns control over critical mineral resources, particularly rare earth elements. Pakistan’s geological surveys indicate substantial reserves of rare earth-bearing minerals, including fluorite, barite, bastnaesite, and monazite, primarily located in Balochistan and Gilgit-Baltistan provinces.
China’s dominance in rare earth processing—controlling over 60% of global refining capacity—has prompted American concerns about supply chain vulnerabilities, particularly given the essential role these minerals play in advanced military systems. The Trump administration’s authorisation of geological mapping assistance through the U.S. Geological Survey represents a quiet but significant strategic initiative to diversify rare earth supply chains away from Chinese control.
The concentration of Pakistan’s rare earth reserves in conflict-affected regions adds complexity to extraction efforts. Both superpowers must navigate not only commercial and technical challenges but also security concerns related to Baloch insurgency and territorial disputes. This dimension of competition may prove increasingly significant as global demand for critical minerals intensifies with the transition to renewable energy and advanced military technologies.
Regional implications and Indian concerns
India’s position in this triangular competition adds another layer of complexity to the New Great Game. New Delhi views CPEC as a direct challenge to its territorial integrity, given the corridor’s passage through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. The prospect of Chinese military infrastructure in disputed territory represents a fundamental security concern for India, potentially creating a two-front challenge combining traditional Pakistani hostility with Chinese strategic presence.
The American decision to engage Pakistan militarily whilst simultaneously deepening partnerships with India through initiatives such as the Quad alliance creates diplomatic tensions. India’s concerns about “re-hyphenation”—the return to viewing India and Pakistan as equivalent strategic partners—reflect fears about American commitment to the Indo-Pacific strategy centred on containing Chinese expansion.
India’s response has involved diversifying its own strategic partnerships, strengthening alternative infrastructure projects such as the Chabahar Port in Iran, and reminding international partners of its significance as a democratic counterweight to authoritarian China. This triangular dynamic ensures that the competition for Pakistan cannot be separated from broader regional power balances.
Pakistan’s strategic balancing act
Pakistan’s approach to managing superpower competition demonstrates sophisticated strategic thinking despite economic constraints. Islamabad has successfully extracted benefits from both China and the United States whilst avoiding complete alignment with either power. This hedging strategy reflects Pakistan’s historical experience of superpower relationships and its understanding of the risks associated with exclusive partnerships.
The Pakistani military establishment’s ability to maintain productive relationships with both Chinese and American counterparts whilst pursuing independent nuclear and conventional military development illustrates the country’s strategic autonomy. Pakistan’s nomination of President Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, whilst simultaneously deepening CPEC cooperation with China, exemplifies this balanced approach.
However, this balancing act requires careful management of competing pressures. Pakistan must satisfy Chinese expectations regarding CPEC implementation whilst addressing American concerns about terrorism and nuclear proliferation. The country’s economic fragility provides both superpowers with leverage, but also ensures continued competition for Pakistani alignment.
The New Great Game in Pakistan represents a microcosm of broader Sino-American strategic competition, wherein middle powers can leverage superpower rivalry to extract maximum benefits whilst maintaining strategic autonomy. Pakistan’s success in this endeavour reflects both its intrinsic strategic value and its sophisticated approach to managing great power relationships.
The outcome of this competition will significantly influence broader regional dynamics, particularly concerning Indian Ocean security, Central Asian connectivity, and the global balance of power. As both superpowers continue to invest in Pakistani partnerships, the country’s ability to maintain its balancing act whilst avoiding the pitfalls of excessive dependence will determine not only its own strategic trajectory but also the broader evolution of 21st-century great power competition.
The New Great Game is indeed just beginning, and Pakistan’s role as both prize and player ensures its continued centrality in global strategic calculations.
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