Ouch.
Universal’s live-action How to Train Your Dragon will have no trouble staying No. 1 in its second weekend with an estimated $35.7 million despite the entry of zombie sequel 28 Years Later and the animated Elio — which is headed for the lowest opening in the history of Pixar amid a crowded marketplace for family fare.
Danny Boyle’s zombie sequel, from Sony, topped Friday’s chart with $14 million, including $5.8 million in Thursday previews, but will be overtaken by How to Train Your Dragon, from the Universal-owned DreamWorks Animation, sometime on Saturday.
A few weeks ago, 28 Years Later was tracking to open to $35 million, with more bullish pundits thinking it could come in north of $40 million. Instead, it’s headed for a solid $30 million to $31 million domestic start. Similar to the family space, some are speculating that the horror marketplace may over-saturated, led by box office hit Final Destination: Bloodlines.
28 Years Later will still mark the biggest opening of Boyle’s career, and reunites the filmmaker with writer Alex Garland 25 years after 28 Days hit the big screen and became a cult classic. Jodie Comer, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Jack O’Connell, Alfie Williams and Ralph Fiennes star in what’s the first installment in a planned trilogy.
The R-rated title has been widely embraced by reviewers, but actual moviegoers are somewhat less enthusiastic; its current audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is 67 percent, compared to a 90 percent critics’ score. At the same time, it’s garnering decent exit scores from leading exit-polling service PostTrak. And it earned a B CinemaScore, which is like an A grade when it come to horror fare.
Facing fierce competition from How to Train Your Dragon and fellow Disney release Lilo & Stitch, Elio took in $9 million on Friday for a projected third-place domestic opening in the $20 million to $22 million range. Elio — an original film about a young boy whose wish to travel to outer space and interact with aliens comes true — was expected to open to at least $30 million domestically.
But with interest stalling in recent days, Disney insiders lowered their projections to $20 million to $25 million as Pixar braced for the worst 3-day opening in its history behind Elemental ($29.6 million) in June 2023 and its very first film, 1995’s Toy Story ($29.1 million), not adjusted for inflation. Toy Story opened over Thanksgiving, and amassed $39 million over the long five-day holiday weekend.
In 2023, Elemental‘s opening was called nothing short of a debacle, yet it turned into sleeper hit on its way to earning nearly $500 million globally. Pixar and parent company Disney, are confident that Elio will have the same sort of staying power throughout the summer when kids are sprung from school. So far, Elio is graced with a better critics score on Rotten Tomatoes than Elemental, as well as glowing PostTrak exit results and an A CinemaScore, including an A+ from kids.
Pixar has been struggling to find its footing in a world where original animated stories don’t open to the heights they once did — think north of $70 million — in the post-pandemic world. And during the pandemic years, then-Disney CEO Bob Chapek decided to send three Pixar titles straight to Disney+ domestically, including Turning Red, Luca and the Oscar-winning Soul, a decision rivals said taught families to wait to watch a film at home. (All three were considered streaming hits.)
But Pixar and Disney reversed course and are once again committed to telling original theatrical stories, mixed in with known IP, such as last year’s blockbuster and recrord-shattering Inside Out 2, the top-grossing pic of 2024, the top ever title for Pixar and the top animated of all time with more than $1.69 billion in worldwide ticket sales, not adjusted for inflation. (As fate would have it, Inside Out 2 opened on the same June weekend a year ago.)
The live-action Lilo & Stitch remains a force to be reckoned with in its fifth weekend, and could earn as much as $9 million to $10 million domestically for a fourth-place finish. Also now in its fifth weekend, Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning likewise continues to show staying power and is expected to round out the top five with $7 million.
More to come.