Rains may arrive early this year as the monsoon could hit parts of the country ahead of schedule. According to advanced extended-range forecasts from major global NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) modelling centres, the South Asian region, including India, may witness an early onset of the monsoon.

Meteorological predictions suggest that significant changes in large-scale wind circulation patterns are expected in the coming weeks. These include semi-permanent features linked to the Asian monsoon circulation over the tropical Indian Ocean. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast that monsoon rains may begin over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands as early as mid-May, possibly by May 13.

Following this, the monsoon could make its way to Kerala in the last week of May, marking a possible early onset over the rest of India.

Analysing circulation anomalies at the sub-seasonal scale, outputs from NWP-based models indicate the influence of moist equatorial waves like equatorial Rossby waves.

These waves, which could either be progressing or quasi-stationary, are expected to begin impacting weather patterns over the Indian region in the coming days. Their presence may accelerate the advance of the monsoon.

Continuous monitoring and real-time analysis in the coming days will provide more clarity. An early monsoon arrival can be critical for agriculture and water resource management. “It is important for all stakeholders, including experts and farmers, to stay alert,” said the weather department.

This development could impact school operations, attendance, and transport logistics if heavy rainfall begins earlier than usual.