Editor’s Note: Throughout the NFL playoffs, Chris Myers and his research team analyze upcoming matchups, while providing news, notes, and nuggets for inside access to the information an NFL broadcaster uses to prepare for calling a game.
Wild Card Weekend
Four teams made the playoffs that did not last year — the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos in the AFC and the Minnesota Vikings and Washington Commanders in the NFC. It’s the 35th straight year with at least four new playoff teams, although six division champs repeated with three of the four newcomers as wild cards. The Rams elevated from wild card to division winners.
This is the first time since 2012 that every playoff team has at least 10 wins. In 2022, no less than five of the 14 playoff teams did not win 10 games, and last year the Buccaneers and Packers were in at 9-8.
This is the fifth postseason with just one bye in each conference. In the four previous seasons under the current format, four of the eight top seeds have made the Super Bowl. This is the fourth time the Chiefs have been the AFC’s top seed in the Patrick Mahomes era, with two Super Bowl appearances and one Super Bowl win in the prior three.
Only one of the last four Super Bowls has been won by a team with a bye (the Chiefs in SB LVII when they beat another top seed, the Philadelphia Eagles). The Chiefs were a 3-seed when they won last year. Tampa Bay in 2020 is the only team to win three road games as the 5-seed to appear in (and win) the Super Bowl. The Rams were a 4-seed when they won in 2021 over another 4-seed, the Bengals.
CHRIS MYERS’ ANALYSIS: “NFL wildcard playoff games have 8 to 12 more cameras on the TV broadcast than the average Sunday regular season game. It’s estimated an increase of 10 more for each round of the postseason, and at the Super Bowl that total, including all cameras, can exceed 100. No sport is more extensively covered, which is a big factor why NFL drama produces so many viewers.
“With the extra cameras, producers and directors can dedicate one to covering each prominent game figure at all times. I will be noticing the different interactions as they unfold.”
Breaking Down AFC Matchups
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Houston Texans
Of the six road teams, two are favored, both in games involving Los Angeles (the road Chargers are 3-point picks at Houston, while the home Rams are 1.5-point underdogs to the Vikings).
Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh is in the playoffs for the fourth time in five seasons as an NFL coach. In his three previous appearances, his 49ers were 3-0 in opening games. Including three CFP playoff games at Michigan, he is 7-4 as a postseason coach.
The Chargers finished the regular season on a three-game win streak, averaging 36 points per game (after averaging 21 PPG in their first 14 contests).
The 10-7 Texans went 1-5 against teams in the playoff field, 9-2 against the rest. The one win was over Buffalo on October 6.
The Chargers aren’t much better, at 2-5 against playoff teams, with the wins coming in a sweep of Denver.
The Chargers are 12-5 against the spread, 9-2 in the last 11.
The Texans are playing in the wild-card round for the eighth time since 2011. And they have played in the late Saturday afternoon slot every single time. Houston has a good record in those games at 5-2, including a win last year over Cleveland.
MYERS’ ANALYSIS: “In watching the coach-QB visuals in this one, keep an eye on how much Jim Harbaugh will come off as a huge cheerleader for Justin Herbert. Harbaugh told us earlier this season that he empowers his players and doesn’t get over-involved in their decision-making. Herbert emphasized that with Harbaugh and the quarterback position — he has so much more freedom than ever.”
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Much has been made of the fact that a team has not started the season 0-4 and made the playoffs since the 1992 Chargers.
What about losing the last four? The 2024 Steelers are the first team to lose the final four games and still make the playoffs since the 1999 Lions did it while finishing 8-8 as champs of a weak NFC Central. They are two of three teams to do so all-time. Those Lions fell meekly in a wild-card game to Washington, 27-13.
Pittsburgh averaged just 14.3 points per game over the final four weeks of the season after averaging 24.8 in the first 13 games. With an uptick to 27.3 points allowed per game.
Meanwhile, Baltimore is 4-0 in that same stretch, including a handy 34-17 win over the Steelers.
Something for Steelers fans to cling to? Pittsburgh is 10-2 in playoff games against divisional opponents, including 3-1 against the Ravens. But Baltimore’s win came in the last such meeting in 2014.
Also, although they fell in Baltimore a few weeks ago, Pittsburgh still has six wins in its last eight visits to Baltimore.
This will be the 38th meeting between coaches John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin (Wins: Tomlin 21, Harbaugh 16). The only more frequent meeting was Green Bay’s Curly Lambeau and Chicago’s George Halas, who contested each other 49 times between 1921 and 1953.
Will Lamar Jackson overcome his playoff woes? The Ravens are only 2-4 in the postseason with Jackson, scoring more than 20 points only once — a 34-10 win over Houston in last season’s divisional round. The losses came against four different teams, three of them at home.
It would be the 17th playoff start for Steelers Qb Russell Wilson — 9-7 in his time with the Seahawks. With two early Super Bowl runs, Wilson started 7-2 in the postseason, 2-5 since 2015. Wilson has put more than 20 points on the board in 12 of his 16 postseason starts — and managed to win two of the four where he did not. He has thrown at least one TD pass in his last 13 postseason games.
MYERS’ ANALYSIS: “Mike Tomlin has a knack for conveying emotion with subtle expressions, not over-the-top gestures. But he’s one of the most captivating sideline figures in the game. He doesn’t interact with his quarterbacks, or anyone else, all that much, but when he does it is interesting. Russell Wilson, on the other hand, is a very active presence on the sideline with teammates and coaches alike.”
Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills
Buffalo and Denver have 47 playoff appearances between them, but this is only the second time the teams have met in the postseason. The other occurrence was 32 years ago to the day, when the Bills won the 1991 AFC Championship Game, 10-7, on January 12, 1992.
The teams did not meet this season, and the last meeting had a somewhat surprising result as the Broncos — who would finish the year 8-9 — won in Buffalo in Week 10 by a score of 24-22.
This is Buffalo’s sixth straight season in the playoffs. They have opened at home in the Wild Card Weekend in the last four and won all of them (over four different opponents).
On the other hand, Denver ended a streak of nine seasons without a playoff appearance in 2024. All of the other 13 teams in this postseason had been in the playoffs within the last four years, even Washington, who won the NFC East in 2020 with a record of 7-9. Denver’s last playoff game was Super Bowl 50 at the end of the 2015 season.
Eleven rookie quarterbacks have won 10-plus games and led their team to the playoffs, with Bo Nix of the Broncos and Jayden Daniels of the Commanders being two of them. It is the third time a pair of rookies have done so in the same season — Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson in 2012 and Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan in 2008. None of the other nine made it to the Super Bowl.
Of the 11, Nix threw the most TD passes with 29.
And few passers have been hotter than Nix. Only Joe Burrow (29) and Lamar Jackson (26) have thrown more than Nix’s 24 TD passes in the past 10 games. Josh Allen, in comparison, has 16 TD passes in that span.
Buffalo’s Josh Allen, along with Lamar Jackson, has emerged as the favorite for the 2024 NFL MVP Award. Should he win, it would be something of a career validation award as he did not throw for 4,000 yards for the first time since 2020. He had exceeded his 2024 total of 28 touchdown passes in each of his previous four seasons, as well. The big improvement for Allen has been his career-low six interceptions, which has boosted his passer rating to 101.4 after averaging 93.6 in the three prior campaigns.
A fun fact about Allen is that, although known for his crazy plays and relative propensity for interceptions, he has not thrown a pick-6 in the regular season or postseason since Week 1 of 2019.
MYERS’ ANALYSIS: “The vibe is different than Jim Harbaugh-Justin Herbert when Sean Payton is coaching a quarterback. Watch for Payton to show more of a teacher-student interaction with Bo Nix, his hand-picked QB. Sean encourages him, sure, but cameras will show he does not hide his frustration or anger on the sideline when his guy does not do what the coach expects him to do.”
Chris Myers is an Emmy Award-winning play-by-play announcer, reporter and studio host for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @The_ChrisMyers.
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