In 2019, when the United Shiv Sena decided to ally with Congress, the majority of Shiv Sena members and MLAs were not happy with the decision. The discontent within the party was such that several leaders reportedly cleared the rumblings within the party to Uddhav Thackeray on multiple occasions. Two and half years into the alliance, the Shiv Sena split into two with 41 of the total 63 MLAs siding with Eknath Shinde who led the rebellion.

Fast forward to the 2024 Lok Sabha polls – the Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance of Shiv Sena-Uddhav Thackeray, NCP-Sharad Pawar and Congress – secured a decisive win over the Mahayuti alliance of the BJP-NCP-Shiv Sena. It was deemed as the semifinal victory for Uddhav Thackeray whose party bagged nine seats. The final took place five months later with Eknath Shinde sweeping the polls, reducing Uddhav Sena to just 20 seats in the assembly. The result affirmed Shinde’s claim on the Shiv Sena with the Uddhav cadre reiterating the demand to return to the Hindutva fold. 

Soon after the election results, the Sena-UBT leaders dropped broad hints of going back to its core Hindutva agenda. The party has mounted a strident attack on the Centre for atrocities on Hindus in Bangladesh after the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government in the neighbouring country in August and has now come forward to ‘protect’ an ’80-year-old’ Hanuman Temple outside Mumbai’s Dadar station that was served a demolition notice by the railways, reported PTI. Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Aaditya Thackeray performed ‘maha aarti’ at the temple amid efforts by the party to corner the ruling BJP on the Hindutva plank. E

Before the polls, the Sena-UBT was shy of vehement display of its Hindutva card in a bid to not upset the Muslim voters, a core vote-bank of the MVA.  The Uddhav Thackeray-led party’s ambiguous stand on the Uniform Civil Code and Waqf Board Amendment Bill gave the BJP further ammunition to attack its former ally. However, now the party is changing its stance. Political experts see this as a key policy shift ahead of the upcoming civic elections across Maharashtra including in Mumbai’s BMC. The cash-rich Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) was controlled by the undivided Shiv Sena for 25 years from 1997 to 2022. In 2017, the Shiv Sena and the BJP were involved a close fight and won 84 and 82 seats, respectively. 

In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the party won four of the six seats in Mumbai, though a closer look revealed it did not do well in seats with its traditional voter base. In assembly segments like Worli, held by Aaditya Thackeray, it had leads of less than 7,000. The ruling BJP accused the Shiv Sena (UBT) of winning with the help of minority votes. In the assembly polls, results of which were declared on November 23, victories in just 10 of the 24 constituencies it contested in Mumbai was another sign of its waning voter base, especially among core supporters. 

Political analyst Abhay Deshpande told PTI the Shiv Sena (UBT) has realized that the party’s ‘secular’ stand may not work in the BMC, so it has moved back to its core Hindutva agenda. The party’s secular stand may help in wards where the Congress has a weak candidate and the minority votes will gravitate to the Shiv Sena UBT, he added. 

Prakash Akolkar, the author of ‘Jai Maharashtra — Ha Shiv Sena Navacha Itihas Aahe’ (Jai Maharashtra — This is the History of Shiv Sena) said the party moving back to Hindutva stems from its “frustration” from electoral setbacks. “In the first session, after he took over as the chief minister in 2019, Uddhav Thackeray had said his party made a mistake of mixing religion with politics. Now the party is going back to its main Hindutva plank. This shows that the party has no real ideology,” Akolkar said.

The Shiv Sena-UBT is likely to go for display of its ‘Hindutva’ card in a bid to regain the lost voter base as well as to counter the BJP, which has emerged even stronger in the state. Shiv Sena-UBT may also sever ties with Congress in future and may work to build a strong base from scratch on its own. (With PTI inputs)