NAGPUR: After a gap of five years, Maharashtra BJP chief and MLC Chandrashekhar Bawankule is seeking to enter the state assembly from Nagpur’s Kamptee, the seat denied to him in 2019 despite his popularity in the region. Though the BJP won the seat in 2019, its vote share dipped by around 10 per cent compared to 2014.

Former state minister Bawankule has several development initiatives to his credit in Kamptee, but he is likely to face a close fight against Congress candidate Suresh Bhoyar in the November 20 state polls, say political observers. The constituency has a mixed population comprising nearly 5 lakh voters with Kunbis and Telis (both OBC communities) making the biggest chunk followed by Muslims.

Though Bawankule has almost four years left of his MLC tenure, the BJP nominated him as he wields a influence over the Teli community across Vidarbha and can swing the community votes in the party’s favour, political analyst Ramu Bhagwat told PTI. Kamptee is part of Ramtek Lok Sabha constituency, from where Congress’ Shyamkumar Barve won the 2024 general poll. This may give some hope to Bhoyar, who is this facing a tougher rival this time, Bhagwat said.

Kamptee APMC’s ex-chairman Hukumchand Amdhare listed unemployment, and lack of jobs for people who gave their lands for power plants and mines as burning issues in the constituency. The traditional powerlooms and ‘bidi’ factories have shut down, leaving weavers jobless. These issues would impact the poll outcome, he said.

In 2019, the BJP denied ticket to Bawankule, who represented Kamptee in 2004, 2009 and 2014, and fielded local leader Tekchand Sawarkar, who defeated Bhoyar by around 11,000 votes. A satellite town of Nagpur, Kamptee’s prominence is because of a military cantonment located there and a large number of Muslim community members mostly engaged in handloom and powerloom units, Bhagwat said.

The game of football with its active clubs is a passion in this town. “But right now, it’s a different game that is engaging the people,” he said. Bawankule, a native of Koradi here, had a humble beginning as an auto-rickshaw driver. BJP leader Nitin Gadkari noticed his leadership qualities two decades back when he fought for the rights of people displaced by large thermal power stations coming up in the area.

“Kamptee was a Congress stronghold for decades. But the scene changed in 2004 when BJP fielded Bawankule for the first time from the seat. Since then, BJP has won the seat. Bawankule won it three times in a row since 2004. He was the energy minister in the previous Fadnavis government and became the strongest Teli community leader in the region,” Bhagwat said.

In 2019, Sawarkar won the seat, mostly because of Bawankule’s influence in the area, he said. “So, Bhoyar faces a much stronger opponent from BJP this time. Though there is anti-incumbency factor against the BJP because of Sawarkar’s low profile, Bawankule is certain to make it up with his charisma and dashing presence,” Bhagwat said.

In 2019, Bhoyar lost mainly because of the split in secular votes as candidates of the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA), AIMIM and BSP together accounted for more than 26,000 votes, he pointed out. Though AIMIM is not in the ring in Kamptee this time, the VBA and BSP have fielded candidates, while there are six little known Muslim independents, threatening to nibble away sizable votes which traditionally go Congress, Bhagwat said.

This could make it a rather easy fight for Bawankule, who also has the backing of Dalit leader Sulekha Kumbhare, ex-MLA of the area, he added. Political analyst Vivek Deshpande said Kamptee is one of the VIP constituencies in Maharashtra with Bawankule fighting the battle after being denied the ticket in 2019.

The BJP had tried to assuage Bawankule’s feelings by making him the state party chief, but not before its vote share in the seat came down by 10 per cent in 2019 compared to 2014, when he received about 55 per cent of the total votes, he said. The seat can’t be said to be safe for Bawankule, Deshpande opined, noting the BSP and VBA together polled enough votes in the past to make a difference.

With their depleted strengths, it remains to be seen if the two parties can make the same kind of difference this time too, he said. “Bawankule’s Teli vote base will not drift away and will, in all probability, tilt scales in his favour, but the game can’t be said to be over till the last vote is polled and counted,” Deshpande said.

Devrao Radke, who won from Kamptee as an independent in 1995, claimed it would be a neck-and-neck fight and the people may like to see a new face. Nagpur Congress member and Kamptee resident Mohammad Abid Taji claimed Bhoyar will lead from the city area, which has a sizeable number of Muslim and Dalit voters.

In the last election, Bhoyar had a lead of 3,000 because of vote split, but the lead in Kamptee city this time will be more than 15,000, he said. There are 2 lakh Kunbi electors and Bhoyar will manage to get a sizeable number of their votes, he said. Taji is not sure how rural Kamptee will vote, but he feels anti-incumbency may favour Bhoyar.

A local BJP worker said Bawankule has been fighting for the people of Kamptee for last many years. He initiated several development projects in Kamptee and has a very good local connect. He will win this election comfortably, he opined.