With a landslide victory in the US presidential elections, Republican candidate Donald Trump is set to take charge after defeating Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. With Trump set to commence his second term as president, his return to power has several meanings for India.
From areas like trade technology to energy and defence cooperation, New Delhi has a significant interest in the US polls. The Indian economy is expected to experience ripple effects with Trump coming back to power. India’s future relationship with the United States can now possibly see a new path.
In the past, Trump has conveyed his interest in boosting ties with New Delhi, and he has made public commitments to enhancing what he calls the “great partnership” between the two countries. In a recent post on X, ahead of the US polls, Trump reaffirmed his friendship and bond with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The camaraderie between the two leaders was on full display during events like “Howdy, Modi!” and “Namaste Trump,” which turned into a cornerstone of relations between India and the US during Trump’s previous tenure.
It is pertinent to mention that Washington is the largest destination for Indian merchandise exports. In 2023-24, imports into India from the US amounted to $42.2 billion, while exports from India were valued at $77.52 billion.
As a candidate, Donald Trump has clearly stated that he intends to revamp the foreign policy of the US with a sharp focus on “America First” principles. Commenting on US poll results, Foreign Minister S Jaishankar recently asserted that Washington is very likely to become more isolationist regardless of who bags victory between Trump and Kamala Harris.
With Trump at the helm of affairs now, his second tenure poses both opportunities and challenges across several key dimensions: trade, immigration, military cooperation, and diplomacy.
Trump’s foreign policy approach is prioritizing American interests and minimizing entanglements in international agreements. During the second term, Trump’s policies could continue to disrupt traditional US alliances and agreements, including with New Delhi.
One area where Trump administration would likely impact the ties between New Delhi and Washington is trade. Last month, the former US President alleged that it imposes the highest tariffs on foreign products and vowed to introduce a reciprocal tax if elected to power.
The Trump administration’s potential tariff policies could have repercussions for India’s IT, pharmaceutical, and textiles sectors, all of which rely on the US market.
On the other hand, the continued push to decouple from China could open new opportunities for New Delhi to position itself as a manufacturing hub, attracting US businesses that are aiming to diversify supply chains away from Beijing.
Immigration Issue
In the past, Trump’s stance on immigration, especially the H-1B visa program, impacted Indian professionals. In his first tenure, he made attempts to increase wage requirements for foreign workers and impose additional restrictions, which created challenges for Indian IT professionals and technology firms. These measures, if reintroduced, could affect the Indian talent pool in the US and influence tech firms that rely on skilled Indian workers.
Military Ties and Defence Cooperation
In recent years, Defence and military collaboration have been cornerstones of the relationship between the two nations. The landmark Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) and defence deals such as the GE-HAL agreement for manufacturing jet engines have been some of the highlights of India-US relations under Joe Biden’s administration.