The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in March this year carried out a surprise political manoeuvre by replacing Manohar Lal Khattar, a Punjabi-origin CM, with an OBC CM Nayab Singh Saini. While Khattar hails from the Punjabi community, Saini’s appointment as state party chief was viewed as an effort to strengthen the party’s support among the OBC community, which makes up nearly 30% of the state’s population. In contrast, the Jat community accounts for about 25%. The BJP has been seen as relying on the consolidation of non-Jat voters.

Nayab Singh Saini’s Elevation

When Saini, an OBC community member, was appointed president of the state BJP last year, it was clear he was being groomed for larger roles. He replaced senior BJP leader Om Prakash Dhankar, who belongs to the Jat community. This move was seen as part of the BJP’s strategy for the upcoming Lok Sabha and state assembly elections. He was then 

Saini’s elevation to Chief Minister right before the Lok Sabha elections was a clear signal to voters from the BJP. The ‘Saini factor’ appears to have helped the party solidify its non-Jat voter base in the assembly elections with the BJP’s vote share standing neck and neck with Congress. The BJP has received around 39.6% of the vote while Congress has received 39.8%.

Haryana Election Result 2024

The BJP appears comfortably placed for a majority victory with Congress not falling far behind. The BJP is likely to win around 45-48 seats while the Congress may win around 35-38 seats. 

Will BJP Replace Nayab Singh Saini?

The Haryana assembly election appears to have turned ‘Jaat vs Non-Jaat’ contest with Jaat votes going to Congress and OBC votes consolidating in the favour of the BJP. Experts claimed that Jaat voters were angry with the BJP alleging ignorance. The farmers’ anger and wrestlers’ protest aided the discontent against the party. Senior BJP leader Anil Vij has also staked claim to the Chief Minister’s post leaving the final decision to the party leadership. Union Minister Rao Inderjit Singh has also expressed his wish to become the Chief Minister of Haryana. 

This raised the question of whether the BJP will replace Nayab Singh Saini as the CM of the state and bring in a Jaat CM face to appease the dominant section. However, as per the current trends, it appears unlikely as the BJP went to the polls under Saini’s leadership and is now nearing a victory. BJP president JP Nadda has already congratulated Saini for the victory, showing the party high command’s confidence in his leadership. If Saini remains the CM, it will also give a sense of stability and continuity to the state and party workers, boosting their morale.