To borrow from the epic Christmas movie Die Hard … “Welcome to the party, pal.”
NFL Week 1 odds finally get in on the fray this week, after two weekends of college football. It’ll be a welcome sight come Thursday night, when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Baltimore Ravens.
“The Chiefs are the new Patriots,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said, alluding to K.C. winning the last two Super Bowls and three of the last five.
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on this matchup and more, as we dive into this week’s NFL betting nuggets.
NFL Quick Hitters
Feazel provided a quick rundown of several more notable games on the NFL Week 1 oddsboard:
Packers vs. Eagles: This is a Friday night game in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Philadelphia opened at -1, peaked at -3 on Aug. 26, and stood at -2 on Wednesday night. “As expected, a lot of Eagles money. The expectations are high on the Eagles from the sharp side. They’re one of those sharp teams. But I don’t know if this gets back to 3.”
Titans vs. Bears: Way back in May, Chicago opened -4.5. The first move finally came on Tuesday, to Bears -3.5, and it’s -4 on Wednesday night. “Even with the hype of Caleb Williams, we’re seeing a lot of Titans money here, including a little sharp action. Seeing the Bears as a 4.5-point favorite vs. anybody seems like a lot. We’ll see if the Caleb Williams public side comes in on Sunday.”
Cowboys vs. Browns: “The market and the sharp side have been anti-Cowboys all year long.” This matchup opened a pick ‘em, and it’s now Cleveland -2.5 at home. “Most of the action we’re seeing is on the Under, which is not a surprise in a Browns game.” The total opened at 44 and is down to 41.
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Rams vs. Lions: The point spread has been painted at Lions -3.5 all offseason, in a rematch of a wild card game from last season, which Detroit won 24-23. “It was a great playoff game last year. For Sunday night, we’ve got two high-powered offenses. I expect to see a lot of Over money as we approach game day.” The total opened at 51.5 and is at 51 midweek.
Jets vs. 49ers: Aaron Rodgers made his Jets debut in this same time slot last season in Week 1, on Monday Night Football. He promptly tore his Achilles and missed the rest of the year. Now, he’s back to face the defending NFC champs. The Niners opened at -6, bottomed out at -3.5 last week and stood at -4.5 on Wednesday night. “There’s been a lot of line movement since opening up in May. But it’s mostly two-way action. Right now, we either need the Jets to win outright or the 49ers to cover the 4.5. But that will change by Monday.”
NFL Sharp Side professional bettor Randy McKay is also intrigued by the final game on the NFL Week 1 oddsboard. And he’s going with the road underdog.
“Jets +4.5 looks decent, even though San Francisco gets back offensive tackle Trent Williams and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk,” McKay said of two key players who signed new contracts to end holdouts in the past few days. “This game looks like a grinder, so I like both Jets +4.5 and Under 43.5.”
McKay is also involved in the Commanders–Buccaneers matchup on Sunday. And he’s not backing Commanders QB Jayden Daniels.
“I played Tampa Bay +3 (-110),” he said. “I like to go against rookie QBs in their first start. There are many strong data points for it. Plus, Daniels is going against one of the best defensive coaches in Todd Bowles.”
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Editor’s Note: The original version of this story was published before Thursday night’s Ravens-Chiefs game
Sharp vs. Public
Months ago — on May 13 to be precise — the Chiefs opened as 2.5-point home favorites vs. the Ravens. Since then, Caesars Sports toggled between K.C. -2.5 and -3 several times, and the line is now Chiefs -3 (even).
“Right now, we’re getting a lot of Ravens and Under money,” Feazel said Wednesday evening. “The sharp money we have seen is on the Chiefs, which is why we moved up to 3.
“The public is on the Ravens at +3, and on the moneyline, there’s a lot of Ravens action.”
Meaning public bettors are hoping for a mild Ravens road upset Thursday night. Baltimore is +130 on the moneyline, meaning a $100 bet would profit $130 ($230 total payout) if the Ravens win outright.
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
There’s big money flying around this week on the NFL.
The biggest bet out there so far, reported by Ben Fawkes, was made at the South Point sportsbook. A customer put a hefty $220,000 on Ravens +3 vs. the Chiefs.
At Caesars Sports, a bettor went big on the Texans in their road game vs. the Colts.
And at Hard Rock Bet in Florida, a customer got down large on the Packers to win the Super Bowl. The wager was for $55,000 at +1750, to win a whopping $962,500, for a total payout of $1.0175 million — if the Packers go the distance.
Other notable big plays from Caesars Sports:
— $31,000 on Raiders +8000 to win the Super Bowl. To profit $2.48 million ($2.511 million total payout).
— $25,000 on Ravens +1000 to win the Super Bowl. To profit $250,000 ($275,000 total payout).
— $4,000 on Saints +8000 to win the Super Bowl. To profit $320,000 ($324,000 total payout), a
— $8,000 on Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes +625 to win NFL MVP. To profit $50,000 ($58,000 total payout).
Caesars also took a smaller bet that will yield a big return if the Giants are unthinkably good this season. The customer put $500 on Big Blue +20000 (200/1) to win the Super Bowl.
If it happens, the bettor profits $100,000.
South Point also took some notable Super Bowl wagers, including $2000 on Colts +12500 (125/1). That would net a cool quarter-million dollars.
It’s intriguing to live vicariously through such bets, whether rooting for or against them. But as the NFL and college come together, remember to keep it reasonable. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Enjoy the full-fledged football weekend.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas
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