Allan Lichtman, renowned for his accurate predictions in US presidential elections, has said that Robert F Kennedy Junior’s withdrawal from the presidential race will likely benefit Democratic candidate and vice president Kamala Harris. Lichtman, known as the ‘Nostradamus‘ of US presidential polls, discussed his forecast on his YouTube livestream.

‘Kennedy’s exit will not impact the outcome’
According to Lichtman’s election prediction system, Kennedy’s exit and his endorsement of former president Donald Trump will not impact the outcome.He explained that Kennedy’s endorsement does not influence the “13 keys to the White House” method he uses to forecast elections.
Lichtman said that he has not made a definitive call on the “third party” key but suggested that Kennedy’s campaign does not appear to be rebounding. He emphasised that he is still reserving judgment on the overall impact.
Harris over Trump
Lichtman had expressed a preference for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in a discussion with a media channel earlier this month. He indicated that a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose, citing that Democrats currently hold six of the 13 keys Lichtman uses for prediction. Factors such as main competition, short and long term economic conditions, policy changes, and challenger charisma are considered in this model.
‘Harris has lost the charisma keys’
The ‘Nostradamus’ of US presidential polls said that the Democrats’ loss in the 2022 midterm elections cost them the “party mandate,” and Harris has lost the “incumbency” and “charisma” keys. However, he noted that for a Harris defeat to be predicted, Democrats would need to lose three additional seats, which he deems unlikely.
Lichtman will make his official prediction for the 2024 presidential race following the Democratic convention.