Four states will go to the polls in the coming months – Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir. While the BJP may have been galvanising its cadre for the polls, the saffron party is facing a precarious situation that indicates it’s losing ground among voters. The recently concluded assembly bypolls for 13 seats across seven states painted a grim picture for the saffron brigade. The BJP could win only two seats while the 10 seats went to the INDIA bloc despite the Congress and Aam Aadmi Party contesting against each other.  

While the BJP was incumbent in only three of these 13 seats and all three were in Bengal, the party lost all three to TMC while gaining one in Himachal Pradesh and one in Madhya Pradesh. 

Now, for the upcoming bypolls in Uttar Pradesh for 10 seats, the Samajwadi Party and the Congress have joined hands once again. The SP will contest seven seats and the Congress three. This will be the actual test of the BJP’s governance in Uttar Pradesh ahead of the 2027 general assembly elections because the bypoll trends show the BJP’s vote share registered a downslide.

In West Bengal’s four seats that went to the bypolls, the BJP’s vote share dipped by up to 34% while in three seats of Himachal Pradesh, the declined by up to 25%. In Uttarakhand, the saffron party’s vote percentage sunk by around 12% in the Badrinath seat while increased by 10% in the Manglaur seat. In Bihar and Madhya Pradesh, the vote share declined while increased in Punjab and Tamil Nadu. The Lok Sabha and the bypoll results show that the INDIA bloc is proving to be a tough challenger for the NDA.

The trends since the Lok Sabha polls show the changing mood of the public where the BJP-led NDA is losing its vote share while the Congress-led INDIA bloc is at an advantage. This also indicates voters’ fatigue with Narendra Modi and the NDA government’s policies. The NDA governments – both at the Centre and the state levels, need to come up with policies that benefit all the sections and not just one or two sections. It also needs to counter the freebies offered/promised by the opposition parties effectively.