NEW DELHI: Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, who was once an anti-corruption crusader and rose to power on the promise of providing corruption-free governance, has now been arrested by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) in connection with the excise policy case. Following his arrest on Thursday by the central agency after two hours of questioning, the 55-year-old AAP national convener became the first sitting chief minister to have been arrested in a criminal case. The ED’s move came hours after the Delhi High Court refused to grant Kejriwal protection from the central agency’s coercive action.

Arrest Amidst Election Season 

Kejriwal’s arrest by the central probe agency comes at a politically sensitive juncture, just before the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections. His evasion of nine consecutive summons by the ED only served to intensify scrutiny on the matter.

Allegations Of Corruption And Money Laundering

The case revolves around alleged corruption and money laundering related to the formulation and execution of Delhi’s excise policy for the fiscal year 2021-22, a policy that was subsequently scrapped. 

What Next For AAP?

Kejriwal’s arrest by the ED has come at a time when the entire nation is in election mode. With prominent figures like Manish Sisodia, Sanjay Singh and Satyendra Jain already in judicial custody as part of the same investigation, Kejriwal’s arrest can further complicate the situation for Delhi’s ruling party.

The party is eyeing at expanding its footprint across the country and has tied up with the Congress to contest the Lok Sabha polls against the BJP in Delhi, Haryana and Gujarat. Kejriwal is the fulcrum of the party’s Lok Sabha campaign and its star campaigner. The party is already feeling the pinch of the absence of its senior leaders like Manish Sisodia, Satyendar Jain and Sanjay Singh. And now, the arrest of Kejriwal has landed the ruling party of Delhi in the doldrums.

On earlier occasions, whenever this question arose, the party maintained a tough stance saying it will fight it out, but there is no denying the fact that AAP’s think tank won’t find it easy to wriggle out of this problem. The party’s campaign in Delhi, where it is contesting on four seats and in Gujarat, where it has fielded candidates on two seats, is centred around Kejriwal.

In Delhi, the party’s campaign is titled, ‘Sansad Mein Bhi Kejriwal, Toh Dilli Hogi Aur Khush Haal’ while in Gujarat, it is being run as ‘Gujarat Mein Bhi Kejriwal’.

In Punjab, while the campaign is centred around state chief minister Bhagwant Mann, Kejriwal had been frequently travelling to the state, where the AAP is contesting all the 13 seats without an alliance with Congress.

Before Kejriwal’s arrest, the party, somewhere, at the back of its mind, was also hoping that he is not arrested considering his mass appeal and popularity, especially among the people of Delhi.

Not only does Kejriwal’s arrest threaten to derail the party’s Lok Sabha campaign, it could have long-standing repercussions on governance in Delhi and the Assembly polls next year.

Despite mounting pressure and public outcry, Kejriwal’s close aides, including Delhi Minister Aatishi and Assembly Speaker Ram Niwas Goyal, affirmed his resolve to continue governing as Delhi CM, even from behind bars.  This unprecedented situation raises questions about the stability of governance in the capital city amidst the ongoing legal battle. 

However, it is not easy to run a government from behind bars. There are legal and constitutional challenges that remain.

Who Will Lead AAP In Kejriwal’s Absence?

Even if Kejriwal refuses to resign, the party will need a leader who is accessible – one who can run AAP and the Delhi government on the ground. The AAP chief oversees everyday governance and plays a crucial role in expanding the party’s footprints in other parts of the country. He is the face of the AAP. But now with his arrest, the party will need some serious rethinking. It doesn’t help that the other big political minds in AAP – Sisodia, Jain and Sanjay Singh are already jailed.

The challenge is to find a worthy leader who can match Kejriwal’s stature. He has been the party’s convenor since its inception in 2012 and the Delhi CM for three terms spanning nearly a decade.

The next rung of leaders include Atishi, Bharadwaj, Raghav Chadha, Gopal Rai and Sandeep Pathak. The names doing the rounds to lead the party are Kejriwal’s wife Sunita and Cabinet ministers Atishi and Bharadwaj. Sunita is a former Indian Revenue Service (IRS) officer but has maintained a low profile all along.

Atishi, who holds the most number of portfolios in the Delhi government, including education, finance, PWD, revenue and services, is considered a close aide of Arvind Kejriwal. She is also a spokesperson of the party, who has been defending the AAP government and Arvind Kejriwal, and attacking the BJP in her press conferences and appearances on news channels – more so after the arrest.

Another prominent member of the Delhi cabinet is Bharadwaj, who holds important portfolios, including health and urban development. A known face, he is often seen defending the party’s leaders and counter-attacking the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its government at the Centre on issues of governance and politics.

The other name that has come up is that of Punjab chief minister Bhagwant Mann, according to a report in the Press Trust of India (PTI). While he is popular among cadres in the state, it remains to be seen if he will leave it for Delhi.

Apart from running the governments in Delhi and Punjab, AAP also has MLAs in Gujarat and Goa. With limited options, the party has to act quickly. The Lok Sabha elections are around the corner and Delhi also faces assembly elections next year.

Will Kejriwal’s Arrest Dent AAP’s Lok Sabha Election Campaign?

The arrest is the biggest crisis AAP has faced since its birth. With the Lok Sabha elections nearing, the timing could not have been worse. The party’s campaign in Delhi and Gujarat, where it is contesting four and two seats respectively, is centred around Kejriwal. The Delhi campaign is titled “Sansad Mein Bhi Kejriwal, Toh Dilli Hogi Aur Khush Haal” and in, Gujarat it says “Gujarat Mein Bhi Kejriwal”.

In Punjab, while Mann remains the face of AAP, Kejriwal has been travelling frequently. The party is contesting all 13 seats without an alliance with the Congress.

However, the ED’s move comes as no surprise and the party seems to have a plan in place – Kejriwal has sealed an alliance with the Congress in Delhi, Gujarat and Haryana.

Now the party is expected to use the arrest to its advantage and gather public sympathy. AAP leaders have already raised an alarm.

Atishi has raised concerns about Kejriwal’s security. 

Security has been tightened near roads leading to BJP headquarters where AAP leaders and workers will protest. The public images from the chaos following the arrest, the party, hopes will work in its favour to evoke emotions among its supporters.

But with its main man arrested, it remains to be seen how much the party can stick to its motto: “Ladenge, jeetenge”.