Sam Panayotovich

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Championship Sunday is upon us.

I’ve got three NFL straight bets and a very rare parlay (!) for the weekend ahead. Remember, this space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-team parlays, either. These will always be the games I love the most.

Let’s go to work.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens (-4, O/U 44.5)

It’s been a while since a No. 1 overall seed was this undervalued in the playoffs. That’s a testament to the staying power of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. They’re a damn monetary magnet, especially as a ‘dog.

Since September 2018, Kansas City is 9-1-1 against the spread when catching points. And while I truly understand the appetite, I’m swiftly going the other way.

Baltimore’s defense is elite, and it’s a major step up in competition from those Miami and Buffalo units that were decimated by injuries. The Ravens led the entire NFL with 60 sacks, and they will pressure the pocket at will.  

Rather than mess around with laying points for the whole game, I’ll cut it down the middle and bet Baltimore in the first half. Let’s get ahead of Reid’s halftime adjustments and avoid fourth-quarter Mahomes at all costs.

Meanwhile, Travis Kelce has scored a touchdown in 10 of his last 12 playoff games. I vividly remember him being -140 or higher last postseason and I want to say he was in the -160 range in last year’s Super Bowl.

Plus money for him to score Sunday? Sign me up please. 

AFC, NFC Championships best bets

PICK: Ravens -2.5 1st half
PICK: Travis Kelce (+115) anytime TD

Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers (-7, O/U 51.5)

I took it on the chin with San Francisco last week.

It happens.

As hesitant as I was to lay a touchdown with the Niners after they almost lost outright as 9.5-point favorites to Green Bay, it’s time to get back on the horse.

Detroit’s ascension this year has been one of the best stories in American sports and Dan Campbell might get a statue outside Ford Field if the Lions can do the unthinkable and reach the Super Bowl. You know better, though.

The Niners are worlds ahead of the Rams and Buccaneers and assuming they shake the rust and avoid another early injury to a star player, they’ll be fine. What’s the final if San Francisco brings its “A” game? I’m thinking 31-17.

It’ll take a near perfect game from Jared Goff to beat me, and I’m more than willing to find out. 

Let’s also parlay the Baltimore and San Francisco moneylines at -108. 

PICK: 49ers (-7) to win by more than 7 points
PICK: Ravens ML / Niners ML -108

2023 Record: (50-38-5, +8.0)

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He’ll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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