When it comes to NFL betting, the public masses are often influenced by recency bias. A team looks awesome one week, so they jump on that team the following week.
To an extent, still a couple of days out from kickoff, that’s happening with the Green Bay Packers, who are 9.5-point road underdogs vs. the San Francisco 49ers.
“The moneyline ticket count is one-way right now. It’s all Packers,” SuperBook senior risk supervisor Casey Degnon said Wednesday night.
So those bettors are banking on a second straight Green Bay upset. But there’s more than the moneyline to this prime-time Saturday night showdown on FOX and the FOX Sports app.
Degnon helps break down where betting on Packers vs. 49ers odds stands now and where he believes it’s heading by 8:15 p.m. ET Saturday.
Packers Now, Niners Later
The SuperBook opened San Francisco as a 9.5-point home favorite Sunday night. Within about 20 minutes, the 49ers jumped to -10. On Tuesday morning, San Fran returned to -9.5 and remained there as of Wednesday night.
“Ticket count is about the same, but there’s more money on Packers spread. We took some sharp money on Packers +10,” Degnon said. “And we’ve got that moneyline love for the Packers, which isn’t a surprise. The Niners are -420. The public isn’t going to bet that.”
Indeed, the masses much prefer taking Packers moneyline at +350 – where a $100 bet wins $350, for a $450 total payout – than laying -420 on the Niners moneyline – where it takes a $420 bet to win $100, for a $520 total payout.
However, Degnon is speaking specifically to straight bets. Based on those wagers at the moment, The SuperBook would be rooting for San Francisco. But as Saturday’s kickoff approaches, moneyline parlay and teaser play will begin to stack up. And that action will land heavily on the Super Bowl favorite 49ers.
“I’m sure at some point, we’ll get the 49ers love. The public will come in later in the week for the 49ers, whether it’s moneyline parlays or teasers,” Degnon said. “All it takes is one or two big parlay tickets, and it’ll change our need. Just killing the parlays would be beneficial for us.”
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The Sharp Side
Sometimes, the best bets are the ones you don’t make. Professional bettor Randy McKay doesn’t yet have a play on the Packers-49ers tilt. And he’s likely to keep it that way.
But he just might get involved if the spread returns to double digits.
“I would maybe play the underdog if it gets back to 10,” McKay said, noting he would love to see the number get to 49ers -10.5 or -11, which would almost certainly have him on the Packers. “Hopefully, it gets over 10. And if it’s a rainy game, that would help the ‘dog.”
Another betting option to watch is the total, which currently sits at 50.5.
I’d keep an eye on that forecast. As of late Wednesday night, there’s a 70% chance of rain in Santa Clara on Saturday night.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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