CNN data guru Harry Enten issued a warning to Democrats during a Wednesday, July 16, segment on the network. Enten discussed the 2026 midterm elections and pointed out that Democrats are “behind their 2006 and 2018 paces when it comes to the generic congressional ballot.”

Looking back to this time in prior years when there was a GOP president (2005 and 2017), Enten explained, “The Democrats vs. Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, the margins, look at where we are now: Democrats are ahead, but by just two points. Look at where Democrats were already by in 2017. They were [ahead] by seven points. 2005 on the congressional ballot, ahead by seven points. Now they’re only ahead by two points.”

He pointed out that the Dems lead is “less than half of where it was in either 2017 or 2005 in July of those years, the years before the midterm election,” and added, “Donald Trump may be unpopular, but Democrats have not come anywhere close to sealing the deal at this particular point.”

Reality check: Dems are way behind their 2006 & 2018 pace on the generic ballot at this point in the cycle.

Ahead by only 2 pt vs. 7 pt in 2006/2018 cycles.

Seat-by-seat analysis actually reveals more GOP pickup opportunities than Dems! Very much unlike 2006 & 2018 at this pt. pic.twitter.com/CRgXukTjz6

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 16, 2025

Going race by race, Enten said “it’s the same idea,” and then pulled up data for House seat ratings with a GOP president today, in 2017, and in 2005. “More net pickup seat chances, last time around, look at that, Democrats were ahead by 33 seats,” he continued. “2005? Democrats were ahead by 17. What’s going on right now? It’s actually Republicans with more net pickup chances at plus 12.”

He continued, “It’s not just on the generic ballot where Democrats are behind their 2017 and 2005 pace. It’s actually when it comes seat by seat, you see that, at least at this particular point, Republicans actually have more net pickup opportunity. This doesn’t look anything like those wave elections back in 2006 or 2018.”

Enten warned Democrats that “this election cycle looks a lot more like 2024 than it does either 2018 or 2006,” and reminded viewers that “Republicans actually held onto the House back in 2024.” He conclude the segment by saying, “For anyone who’s writing Republican House’s political obituaries, hold the phone. This is a reality check. Republicans are still very much in the game.”