Moscow has stepped up its attacks in the past two weeks, aiming to break Ukrainian morale and secure victory. But the situation on the ground suggests that goal remains far-fetched.
India Today’s Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) team analysed comprehensive strike data from ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data) and other media reports to understand how the scale of the war has intensified over the past two weeks.
Data reveals a consistent upward trend in the number of drone and missile strikes across March, April, May, and June 2025, indicating an escalation in the intensity of the conflict during these months. On July 9, Russia launched 728 drones and 13 missiles in a single day — the largest airstrike since the war began in February 2022.
Ground reports analysed by the American non-profit Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and other publications also indicate Russia’s intensified offensive over the past 30 days. ISW assesses that Russian forces seized a total of 498.53 square kilometers in May 2025 and 466.71 square kilometers in June 2025.
At this pace, Russia is advancing by just 15 square kilometres a day — roughly the size of Delhi’s international airport. So far, it already controls 113,888 square kilometres of Ukraine’s total 603,000 square kilometres.
To capture the remaining 80% of Ukraine, experts say it would take another 89 years at the current pace. However, Russia’s rate of advance has changed during the war, depending on several factors — such as how many offensives are active on different parts of the front, the time of year and weather conditions, and the strength and supplies of both Russian and Ukrainian forces.
Meanwhile, citing two US officials, Reuters reported on July 9 that the United States has resumed military aid deliveries to Ukraine, including shipments of 155mm artillery shells and Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) rockets.
Following the July 4 attack, Russia launched another large-scale missile and drone strike on the night of July 9–10 that heavily targeted Kyiv City, resulting in civilian casualties and significant damage to civilian infrastructure
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 397 Shahed-type strike drones and decoy drones from the directions of Bryansk, Kursk, and Oryol cities; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and Millerovo, Rostov Oblast – of which about 200 were Shahed-type drones.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces shot down 178 total projectiles, including 164 drones, all eight Iskander-M ballistic missiles, and all six Kh-101 cruise missiles, and that 204 drones and missiles were “lost” or suppressed by Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) systems. Ukrainian officials reported that the main targets of the Russian strike series were Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast and that Russian strikes also damaged Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Kirovohrad, and Kharkiv oblasts
A Russian military blogger linked to the Kremlin said that Russian forces are using new strike tactics by launching large attacks focused on one or two main cities. According to the blogger, Ukraine’s air defences can’t handle such large and concentrated attacks. Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat added that Russia is launching drones and missiles from different directions and heights, making it harder for Ukraine to defend against them.
Such strike packages increase Ukraine’s dependence on Western air defense systems like the U.S. Patriot, as well as support for developing and producing its own interceptor drones.
To protect its cities, Ukraine will require both domestic and partner-provided air defense systems integrated into a unified defense network.
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