Former US Vice President Kamala Harris holds a clear early advantage in California’s 2026 gubernatorial race if she decides to run, according to new polling from the University of California, Irvine’s School of Social Ecology.
The poll shows Harris with 24 per cent support in a crowded field of declared and potential Democratic contenders, including Rick Caruso (9 per cent) and several current and former California officeholders. Despite her lead, a significant 40 per cent of voters remain undecided, reflecting widespread uncertainty this early in the race.
Harris fares better when matched head-to-head against an unnamed Republican, drawing 41 per cent support compared to 29 per cent. However, 16 per cent said they were unsure, and 14 per cent said they wouldn’t vote in such a matchup.
Harris has not yet entered the race but is reportedly eyeing a decision by the end of summer. She has been quietly engaging with longtime supporters and donors, though some remain hesitant due to memories of her unsuccessful 2024 presidential bid. Still, her name recognition, fundraising capabilities, and strong favorability, with a net +11 rating, give her significant political weight.
The field of Democrats currently includes Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, State Superintendent Tony Thurmond, former Rep. Katie Porter, and others. Attorney General Rob Bonta has opted not to run, citing Harris’s potential candidacy as “field-clearing.”
The University of California, Irvine, in partnership with Truedot, conducted two statewide polls. The first, fielded from May 27 to June 2 with 2,143 California adults, measured Harris’s favorability and carried a margin of error of 2.9 per cent points. The second, conducted from May 29 to June 4 with 2,000 respondents, focused on the gubernatorial ballot and had a 3.6-point margin of error.
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