The ceasefire between Iran and Israel is seemingly hanging by a thread.

A look at the chronology of events over the past two weeks points to a potential escalation in the near future, say experts.

A day after Iran’s Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear facilities were struck, US President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that if the current Iranian regime is unable to “Make Iran Great Again”, a regime change would be inevitable.

The following day, on June 24, a ceasefire was announced between Iran and Israel, with Trump again claiming credit for the truce, just as he did during the flare-up between India and Pakistan in May.

Another day passed, and Trump’s stance, like a reed in the wind, shifted again. This time, the US President said he did not want Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s leadership to be replaced, stating, “Regime change takes chaos, and ideally we don’t want to see so much chaos.”

On the matter of the US bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites, the latter did admit that the sites were hit. Speaking to Al Jazeera, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson said, “Our nuclear installations have been badly damaged, that’s for sure”.

But according to an early Pentagon intelligence assessment reported by the BBC, the three nuclear sites bombed by the US were not completely destroyed. The strikes have reportedly only delayed Tehran’s nuclear program by a few months.

Sources familiar with the Defence Intelligence Agency told CBS, the BBC’s US partner, that the Islamic Republic’s stockpile of enriched uranium was not eliminated in Saturday’s bombings.

The BBC also reported that Pentagon intelligence sources believe Iran’s centrifuges are largely intact, with the damage limited to above-ground structures.

Trump has rejected these claims, much as he did US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard’s March assertion that Iran was not building nuclear weapons. However, Gabbard later reversed her position.

ISRAEL’S GOALS UNACHIEVED

It’s worth noting that when Operation Rising Lion began nearly a fortnight ago on June 13, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had said that assassinating Khamenei would “end the conflict”.

Now, with the truce in place and Khamenei emerging from a bunker, one of Israel’s two primary war-ending objectives remains unfulfilled.

In his first public address since a brief war with Israel came to an end, Khamenei claimed victory over Israel and slammed the US for their direct involvement in the war, saying it was “a heavy slap to America’s face”.

It must be noted that the war between Iran and Israel began soon after the Axis of Resistance (AoR) was weakened by Israeli and American offensives.

Mohanad Hage Ali, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Centre in Beirut, Lebanon, was quoted as saying in the New York Times, “It (AoR) has been transformed into an axis of sitting ducks waiting for the next Israeli strikes rather than taking initiative and pushing Israel into the defence, as was the case just a few years ago.”

Analysts say Iran, feeling diminished regionally, yet possessing the potential to develop nuclear weapons, was bombed by Israel, which alleged it was just steps away from building nine nuclear bombs, though without conclusive evidence from either the US or Israel.

But despite being isolated due to its designation as a “State Sponsor of Terrorism” by the US, and facing restrictions on financial systems and foreign aid, Iran has not bowed to US and Israeli pressure.

If the US has actually missed bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities as reports suggest, especially the biggest one in Fordow, Israel’s main goal of undermining Iran’s nuclear ambitions also remains unfulfilled.

Amid these developments, Iran has passed a bill effectively suspending its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), a UN watchdog. Tehran argues that the IAEA’s resolution, issued just a day before Israel’s strikes, was politically motivated and claimed Iran was not meeting its nuclear safeguard commitments.

In a joint statement, Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Atomic Energy Organisation condemned the resolution, saying it “seriously undermines the credibility and integrity of the IAEA.”

Tehran has repeatedly insisted that its nuclear program is intended for civilian purposes, and that its facilities were consistently monitored by the UN watchdog.

But now, with threats mounting in a region surrounded by hostile neighbours, Iran may be compelled to develop nuclear weapons — an outcome that recent US strikes have reportedly only delayed by a few months.

With international oversight gone, Iran’s next moves could inflame tensions with the West and Israel even more. Trump has already said that if Iran rebuilds its nuclear programme, the US will again launch strikes.

Even Iran’s secretariat of the supreme national security council said a statement carried by Iranian media outlet Fars, “The armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, without the slightest trust in the words of the enemies, and with their hands on the trigger, will be ready to give a decisive and regrettable response to any act of aggression by the enemy.”

With two highly unpredictable allies facing off against a state that refuses to relent, the truce may prove exceptionally hard to maintain.

– Ends