Nigerian President Bola Tinubu led the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) for just under two years as its rotating chairman. But, in that short period, the main political and economic body in the region witnessed some of the biggest challenges in its history.With terror attacks and other security concerns ongoing, the ability of ECOWAS to respond to threats has been further reduced following the exit of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger from the bloc under the leadership of their respective military rulers. Tinubu acknowledged as much in his speech at the ECOWAS summit over the weekend in Nigeria’s capital, Abuja.The president expressed concern about the stalled process of rolling out an expanded ECOWAS Standby Force, which is made up of military, civilian and police components. The force was conceived in 2024 following the departures of the three Sahel nations, which established their own Alliance of Sahel States (AES) in 2023.“The ECOWAS Standby Force must move from concept to operational reality,” Tinubu said, highlighting the need for a ready force to combat terrorism as well as other forms of organized crime in West Africa. “I am a little bit worried about the slow pace of its activation, which is taking longer than desired.”The ECOWAS coffers received a fresh cash injection from the European Union last week of €110 million ($126 million) — though this is still a far cry from the estimated cost of €2.26 billion needed for the activation of the Standby Force.

‘A completely fractured region’

Though he expressed optimism that Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger would eventually “return to the family,” Tinubu said he had exhausted “all diplomatic means to engage and dialogue with our brothers.” The countries have categorically ruled out rejoining ECOWAS.“You now have a completely fractured region,” Beverly Ochieng, a senior associate who specializes in the Sahel at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told DW, citing successive coups in West Africa. “So you have three countries that have basically walked out of the bloc,” Ochieng said. “You have one that’s still under suspension until it holds its elections, and that is Guinea. And, broadly speaking, you have an ECOWAS that sometimes feels as if it is struggling to be able to just maintain a sense of unity in order for them to be able to face some of those challenges as a united front.”

Opposing alliances working together

The AES has openly defied the authority that ECOWAS has established in the region over the past 50 years, and has been used as an example to underscore accusations that Tinubu showed too much resolve against the junta-led Sahel states during his ECOWAS presidency.“The rhetoric initially in response to the military coups may have been misplaced in the sense of ensuring open dialogue and cooperation,” Ochieng said of Tinubu’s hardball approach.Perhaps now as a gentle signal of rapprochement — or a final sign of defeat — ECOWAS also announced during its summit in Abuja that it had reached an agreement with the military juntas of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger to work together in their fight against terrorism throughout the region.Ochieng said the effort was mainly based on “a realization by ECOWAS that they will ultimately have to find a way to work with the Sahel because the issues that affect the Sahel will ultimately have an impact on ECOWAS.”The agreement stipulates that the principle of freedom of movement of goods and people between member states of both alliances will be maintained.

A new chairman

The new ECOWAS chairman, Sierra Leone President Julius Maada Bio, clearly has his work cut out for him — and he knows it, as the bloc faces unprecedented threats to its integrity.“The democratic space is under strain in parts of our region,” Bio said in his opening remarks as ECOWAS president. “In some countries, the constitutional order has been disrupted.”DW’s Ben Shemang, who reported from the ECOWAS summit in Abuja, said Bio had pledged to prioritize democracy, security cooperation, economic integration and the institutional credibility of ECOWAS during his tenure.“Many are expecting a tenure that will not only strengthen security within the regional bloc but also to ensure unity,” Shemang said.

Organized crime on the rise

The issues are piling up on Bio’s desk.Organized crime is on the rise in West Africa against the backdrop of political and economic instability, and it often straddles multiple national borders, with insurgents mixing with criminals.Abductions for ransom, a spike in recreational drug abuse and a rise in illegal mining practices highlight the growing despair of people throughout a region with an overall population of 425 million people.“ECOWAS and some of its departments will talk about levels of crime, they’ll talk about the issues affecting criminality,” Ochieng said. “But when it comes to implementing measures to be able to counter to some of those vices, it’s quite slow and bureaucratic.”

Threats of further fragmentation

The founding of the AES has also emboldened leaders as well as opposition groups in the region and beyond to seek new directions, with many interpreting the actions of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger as an overdue response to the lingering effects of colonialism.A recent survey in Togo carried out by the independent, pan-African research network Afrobarometer found that 64 percent of Togolese respondents found the establishment of the AES “somewhat” or “very” justified and that that 54 percent of Togolese thought their country would benefit from leaving ECOWAS to join the AES.Guinea, which has also been under military rule for close to four years but has not joined the AES, remains suspended from ECOWAS, which could lead the nation to further distance itself from the bloc.

Uphill battles for both ECOWAS and the AES

Such trends can be interpreted as evidence of the waning influence of former colonial powers, but they also reflect the fact that bodies such as ECOWAS appear to have little impact on people’s daily lives, as instability and unrest continue to affect millions.“Understandably, there is a feeling that [ECOWAS] is not fit for purpose in terms of being able to address current political pressures, and in doing so, being able to address the issues that then lead to economic and civil unrest,” Ochieng said. She added that ideas like “joining the AES feel like a more reactionary solution. And even the AES itself is a very reactionary institution.”“Perhaps the AES could be moving in a direction that people feel is admirable, that is very purposeful, that is very driven, but it’s also on a very fragile foundation,” Ochieng said. “These are military leaderships. They have widespread unrest and instability that they are facing as they are trying to establish this institution.”Growing numbers of people in the region nevertheless appear to be showing their support for strongmen tactics over democratic and consensus-led policies. Bio seemed to be aware of the big task that lies ahead as he begins his tenure.During his opening speech, the new leader of the bloc acknowledged that “ECOWAS must reform itself, and become more transparent, efficient and responsive to its people’s needs.”