Benny Gantz, facing the cameras with gravity, on Saturday told PM Benjamin Netanyahu to shift course on the Gaza war or he’d quit the three-man war cabinet. Israel, he said, needs “a govt that will win the people’s trust.” Coming days after the other war cabinet member, defence minister Yoav Gallant, bitterly accused Netanyahu of failing to have a postwar plan, it seemed that Netanyahu was being isolated by his two senior deputies, both former top generals, and Israel was headed toward political crisis.
But analysts on Sunday said Netanyahu’s coalition, 64 parliamentary seats out of 120, remains secure. Even if Gantz carries out his threat to resign by June 8 – not a certainty – little is likely to change in the short to medium term, they said. The war cabinet might collapse but Netanyahu would continue to govern with his far-right partners. “Gantz’s chances of overthrowing the govt are slim,” said Mazal Mualem, who’s written a recent political biography of Netanyahu. “There is almost no chance that members of Netanyahu’s Likud party will rebel against him, given the political cost. The second way is through massive public protest. But public sentiment isn’t there. Gantz’s move was a mistake.”
All that said, if five Likud legislators do rebel or if Ultra-Orthodox partners walk out over court-enforced efforts to draft their young men, Netanyahu would be in trouble and may result in polls. His extremist partners could push him to adopt policies that would lead to massive anti-govt stir and objections from the US, either of which could lead to change.