NEW DELHI: Calling it the “mother of elections,” the Election Commission on Monday blew the conch for the upcoming assembly elections in Bihar. Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar announced that the elections will be conducted in two phases — November 6 and 11 — and the results will be declared on November 14.Ahead of the elections, the battle lines are clearly drawn. The NDA — with BJP, JD(U), and LJP (RV) — is preparing to face a united opposition led by RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav, with backing from Congress and Left parties across all seats. Meanwhile, the new entrant Prashant Kishor‘s Jan Suraaj has also staked claims on all 243 seats of the state.Here’s how the three main camps are gearing up for the big fight:MahagathbandhanTwo YatrasThe Mahagathbandhan, with RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav as its CM face, is riding on the issue of “Vote Chori” and irregularities in the special intensive revision of electoral rolls ahead of the election. Congress, along with RJD, launched the “Voter Adhikar Yatra” in which Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav travelled across the state, alleging that the Election Commission is enabling BJP to steal mandates by manipulating the electoral roll.Soon after, Tejashwi Yadav launched his own “Bihar Adhikar Yatra” to raise the pitch against the Nitish Kumar-led NDA government over issues of unemployment and increasing crime incidents, covering districts left out in the earlier yatra. The launch of the new yatra also fuels speculation that Tejashwi may have additional objectives amid ongoing seat-sharing talks.Congress’ performanceThe Mahagathbandhan also faces internal challenges. Congress’s vote percentage has been declining since it was ousted from power in 1990, and the opposition claims that the party’s state cadre is weak and not fully committed.Additionally, Lalu Yadav’s family, including Tejashwi, is caught in legal wrangles, such as the land-for-jobs scam being probed by the ED. Despite Tejashwi’s popularity among party cadres, tantrums by siblings such as Tej Pratap Yadav have often forced him to divide his attention between family management and political duties.However, RJD enjoys a solid and loyal Muslim-Yadav (MY) vote base, which together accounts for nearly 30 per cent of the electorate.Seat sharingThe allies in the Mahagathbandhan are yet to finalise seat-sharing, and achieving consensus may be challenging. In the 2020 assembly elections, RJD contested 144 seats and won 75, Congress contested 70 seats and won 19, while Left parties performed strongly: CPI-ML won 12 out of 19, CPM 2 out of 4, and CPI 2 out of 6.

This time, at least three more parties — Vikasheel Insaan Party (VIP), JMM, and a breakaway faction of LJP — have joined the opposition alliance. Interestingly, VIP had walked out of the alliance five years back to join NDA. Now, VIP’s Sahani is demanding 60 seats and the post of deputy chief minister if the alliance wins. Judging by recent statements from allies seeking better deals, finalising a seat-sharing arrangement is likely to be difficult.With a young leader like Tejashwi at the helm, the Mahagathbandhan can attempt a complete image makeover. He has seized the opportunity to project himself as sensitive to the state’s urgent need for job creation and has raised the issues of migration and law and order. It will be interesting to watch how the alliance manages ambitious leaders while maintaining cohesion.

National Democratic Alliance

Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar‘s Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party aim to retain power in the upcoming election and widen their seat margin. The NDA is contesting on the plank of development and “double-engine government” — Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the Centre and Nitish Kumar in Bihar.Nitish Kumar, the state’s longest-serving chief minister, is widely known for his focus on “sushasan” (good governance). Recently, his government has launched popular welfare schemes, including enhanced social security pensions, financial aid of Rs 10,000 each to 75 lakh women, and infrastructure development projects. The Centre has also introduced several development initiatives in the poll-bound state.BJP and JD(U) benefit from an organised cadre base, supported by RSS affiliates like the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad. Nitish Kumar belongs to the Kurmi caste (3 per cent of the state), and he has positioned himself as the “poster boy” of the Extremely Backward Classes, the largest demographic in Bihar. However, BJP, despite its efforts to broaden its social base, is still largely perceived as a party of upper castes, which account for just over 10 per cent of the population.Critics argue that Nitish’s declining health may affect his political future and claim that JD(U) and BJP are internally competing to be the “big brother” in the alliance. In 2020, BJP won 74 seats and became the second-largest party, while JD(U) managed 43.

Jan Suraaj

In a state long dominated by two alliances, poll strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor has positioned his Jan Suraaj Party as a disruptor. His campaign highlights governance issues and alleged failures of dominant parties rather than caste-based politics.Kishor has announced that his party will field candidates on all 243 seats. His sharp criticism of corruption among NDA leaders, combined with over three years of groundwork and a successful track record as a strategist, has put him in the limelight. His targets so far include Bihar’s deputy chief minister Samrat Choudhary, ministers Ashok Choudhary, Mangal Pandey, and BJP MP Sanjay Jaiswal.Interestingly, Kishor, often accused of aiding the BJP, has unleashed his tirade against ruling NDA members. There is strong potential for him to expand his critique to Mahagathbandhan leaders, keeping voters guessing who might be next in his line of fire.