Taylor Swift‘s Life of a Showgirl special theatrical event is rocking at the domestic box office, where it’s headed for a first-place finish with a weekend haul of at least $28 million to $32 million from 3,702 theaters, according to estimates from Swift’s team and partner AMC Theatres. Rival distributors, however, have it earning north of $35 million.
Whatever the outcome, those numbers are in sharp contrast to ticket sales for the Dwayne Johnson-led wrestling drama The Smashing Machine, which is bombing in its domestic debut. Playing in 3,345 theaters, the A24 release earned $2.7 million Friday for a projected weekend opening of $6 million, versus the $12 million to $14 million it was expected to earn.
The movie — an awards vehicle for Johnson — is looking at a third-place finish behind Showgirl and holdover One Battle After Another after getting slapped with a B- CinemaScore from audiences. (Critics have been more kind; it’s current score on Rotten Tomatoes is an okay 77 percent.)
Conversely, Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl earned a coveted A+ CinemaScore from her fans, just as her history-making concert film Eras Tour did. Nearly 90 percent of Friday’s moviegoers were female.
Swift’s team went to great lengths to keep the Showgirl project top secret until the 11th hour (they almost succeeded, but not quite), much to the chagrin of other distributors who don’t like last-minute surprises. She announced the Oct. 3-Oct. 5 special event on Sept. 19 in a well-orchestrated social media post informing fans that advance tickets would go sale that day at 12:12 local time for $12, in keeping with Swift’s longtime relationship with numbers (Showgirl is her 12th studio album). Consumers can expect to pay notably more than $12 for premium large format screenings.
Showgirl, playing in theaters for only three days, can best be described as a series of lyric videos for tracks on her new album, music videos and behind-the-scenes footage. And it’s anchored by the world premiere of the music video for Showgirl single “The Fate of Ophelia,” which she directed.
In 2023, The Eras Tour concert pic catapulted Swift to box office fame when opening in 2023 to a huge $93.2 million domestically on its way becoming the top grossing concert film of all time with $261.6 million in global ticket sales. The superstar and her team financed the $15 million project, bypassed the Hollywood studio system in partnering with AMC Theatres to distribute the film. AMC Theatres Distribution is likewise releasing Showgirl in partnership with Variance Films in the U.S. and Canada, and with Piece of Magic Entertainment in other international markets.
According to THR‘s review of Showgirl, “The 89-minute cinematic experience — neither visual album nor concert film, and not quite a documentary — is strictly for the diehards. But while there’s something to be said for the communal experience of absorbing an album surrounded by dozens of likeminded fans, what’s actually being served up on screen is more filler than killer.”
Directed by Benny Safdie, Smashing Machine a film reunites Johnson with his Jungle Cruise co-star and good friend Emily Blunt, who played a key role in bringing Johnson and Safdie together. The film is based on the real-life story of Mark Kerr, a former college wrestler who battled trauma and an addiction to painkillers during the early years of the UFC. It marks Johnson’s first time making a play in the awards space.
Another weekend offering is James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of Water, which is being rereleased exclusively in 3D. Like Swift’s team, Cameron and partner 20th Century/Disney are using the box office for promotional purposes: this Christmas, Avatar: Ash and Fire opens.
The movie will be playing in 90 percent of all Imax auditoriums domestically, but will have to share Dolby Cinema screens and other premium large-format auditoriums. Way of Water is projected to earn $2 million to $3 million domestically from 2,100 theaters.
More to come.