Consumers are spending, but not necessarily on shoes.

U.S. consumer spending intentions on softgoods, such as apparel and shoes, over the next 90 days are up 5.9 percent versus year-ago levels, according to a UBS survey earlier this month. High-income consumer spending intentions jumped 10.4 percent.

“We think this is very important since high-income consumers account for a disproportionate amount of total softgoods spending,” wrote UBS softlines retail analyst Jay Sole in a report.

Sole said spending intentions also appear to bode well for holiday, noting that the market could be underestimating how U.S. consumers prioritize and plan for holiday shopping. He also expects “moderate price increases because of tariffs,” adding that conversations with softline firms suggest low- to mid-single digit price increases in the fourth quarter so as not to “spook consumers or risk losing market share to rivals who raise prices less.”

The UBS survey also took a look at spending by political affiliation. The spending outlook on apparel and footwear is higher among Republican respondents, while the opposite was true for those indicating affiliation with the Democratic party, a possible reflection on differing views on where the economy is headed. Republican respondents said the current state of the U.S. economy isn’t impacting their spending. In contrast, spending less overall was higher for Democratic respondents, which coincided with their plans to spend less on apparel.

The UBS data, citing to Haver Analytics and Euromonitor, siad that U.S. apparel sales were $341 billion in 2024, while the tally for U.S. footwear sales were $91 billion. UBS also noted that apparel and shoes — which account for roughly 2 percent of U.S. GDP — are considered slow-growing categories, according to Haver Analytics.

Wells Fargo economists Tim Quinlan and Shannon Grein on Friday said that while inflation continues to be a challenge, higher prices may be curtailing some consumer purchases but it is not halting spending. They also pointed to a backdrop where the jobs market may have softened, but because of the still-low employment rate and small number of people filing for first-time unemployment benefits, most of those looking for work are likely still employed and continue to receive a paycheck. With the savings rate at 4.6 percent in August, indications are that households have some financial cushion, the economists concluded.

Deloitte is forecasting holiday retail sales to rise between 2.9 percent and 3.4 percent this year, totaling between $1.61 trillion and $1.62 trillion during the November to January timeframe. That compares with a holiday sales growth of 4.2 percent in the same 2024 period. The consultancy is also projecting that e-commerce sales will grow between 7 percent to 9 percent, or between $305 billion and $310.7 billion this season.

“We expect this holiday season to demonstrate the resiliency of consumers as they continue to face economic uncertainty,” said Natalie Martini, Deloitte’s vice chair and U.S. retail and consumer products leader.

But while consumers may be spending on some items — a classic holiday gift item is apparel — footwear sales could be on the decline. Other data points also indicate higher prices and slower spending on footwear.

Data from intelligence platform Competitoor show that for the year ending Sept. 5, women’s sneaker prices rose 12 percent, while women’s boot prices are up 9 percent. Men’s sneakers on average rose 16 percent, while footwear in general is up 15 percent year-over-year. Over the same period, the average price increase for girls’ footwear is up 10 percent and for boys it is up 12 percent.

“These price increases reflect new products that entered the U.S. subject to tariffs,” said Competitoor CEO Maurizio Catallani. Competitoor’s platform tracks luxury retailers such as Bergdorf, Bloomingdale’s, Farfetch, Levelshoes, MyTheresa, Neiman Marcus and Net-a-porter, which cater more to high-income consumers.

“For the holiday period, even at increased prices, footwear remains a priority for shoppers, especially trending styles such as performance sneakers, soccer inspired sneaker silhouettes, ballet flats, boat shoes and heels,” Catallani said.

But there’s one consumer demographic that hasn’t been spending as much as before on footwear. Data from direct marketing firm Belardi Wong found that older consumers tend to be more conservative during times of uncertainty.

According to the firm’s president Polly Wong: “We continue to see some softness in the demand for comfort footwear brands targeting 50-plus consumers. Over the last few months, revenue is trending down low-single digits.” She said the brands that are beating the trend are those accelerating their direct-to consumer marketing, while also expanding on their wholesale presence.

Wong also said the pullback in spending among older consumers in the spring was likely due to tariff uncertainty. Some spending among this consumer cohort has rebounded in late summer, although it wasn’t immediately clear what their spending was more recently for comfort shoes. In general, Wong expects the footwear options that will see the most growth are running shoes, outdoor/hiking boots and work boots. She also noted that 35 percent of footwear sales are online, with 65 percent sold in physical stores.

PwC’s 2025 holiday survey results, disclosed earlier this month, projects a 7 percent to 10 percent decline in year-over-year footwear spending this holiday season. While sticker shock is driving the estimated decline, fewer new customers and smaller orders by large merchants are also fueling the sales pullback.

While the PwC study was conducted in June, there are indications that a potential pullback on footwear spend could be in the works.

Nike Inc. in May disclosed that U.S. retail prices on higher-priced sneakers would increase on June 1, although the Swoosh did maintain current price points for the Jordan brand and Nike kids apparel and footwear. Overall, footwear brands such as Steven Madden Ltd. and On Holding AG, were good about keeping their promise to do only “surgical” price increases for the fall season against the backdrop of rising tariff increases. Data from the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America (FDRA) indicate that shoe prices rose 1.4 percent in August, the most in 17 months and at the second fastest rate in 33 months. Ongoing inflation and higher tariffs resulting in onerous duties on shoe imports contributed to the increases. The trade group is particularly concerned with how tariffs affect low-income consumers, who are disproportionately impacted when prices rise.

New data from the FDRA on Monday from a study conducted by Emerson College Polling found that 75 percent of consumers said they’ve noticed higher shoe prices over the past year, with 76 percent of respondents expecting pricing to rise higher in the coming months. Concern was especially high among those earning less than $50,000 annually, while 80 percent of those aged 50 and older cited tariffs as a major contributor to inflation. Other data points show that many Americans are already scaling back their purchases due to inflation and economic uncertainty, and that lower-income households and older Americans are particularly concerned about continued price hikes.

“This survey makes it clear: consumers are feeling the pinch, and they know tariffs are part of the problem,” FDRA president and CEO Matt Priest said. “With the holidays approaching, families are making tough choices — and shoes are increasingly being left off the list. Policymakers need to understand that tariffs are not abstract policy tools — they’re real costs passed on to hardworking Americans.”