Pakistan’s five-wicket victory over Sri Lanka on Tuesday at the Sheikh Zayed Stadium in Abu Dhabi has thrown the Asia Cup 2025 Super 4 race wide open, injecting fresh intensity into the battle for a place in the final.
With the win, Pakistan moved to two points from two matches, boosting their net run rate (NRR) to +0.226, while Sri Lanka slumped to two defeats in as many outings, their NRR sliding to a worrying -0.590.
India, sitting comfortably at the top with two wins and an NRR of +0.689, remain strong favourites to book a spot in the final, but the tussle for the second berth could now come down to a straight contest between Pakistan and Bangladesh.
For Sri Lanka, the loss has been a major blow. The defending champions must now beat India in their final Super 4 fixture—and win by a convincing margin—to repair their NRR while also banking on other results to fall in their favour.
Here’s how teams need to do from here to qualify for the Asia Cup final
For Sri Lanka to qualify
Bangladesh beat India
Bangladesh beat Pakistan
Sri Lanka beat India
In that scenario, Sri Lanka, India and Pakistan will end with 2 points apiece, after which the team with the best net run rate goes through.
For India to qualify
India need to beat either Sri Lanka or Bangladesh to qualify for the final.
For Pakistan to qualify
India beat Bangladesh
Pakistan beat Bangladesh
Or
Bangladesh beat India
Pakistan beat Bangladesh
If Sri Lanka beat India in their last league game, then Pakistan will qualify straight away.
But if India beat Sri Lanka, then India, Sri Lanka and Pakistan will have 4 points apiece, after which the two teams with the best net run rate will qualify.
For Bangladesh to qualify
Bangladesh beat India
Bangladesh beat Pakistan
Or
Bangladesh beat India
Pakistan beat Bangladesh
If Sri Lanka beat India, then Bangladesh will directly qualify for the final
If India beat Sri Lanka, then India, Pakistan and Bangladesh will finish with 4 points apiece after which the two teams with the best net run rate will qualify.
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