Trump wants Afghanistan’s Bagram Air Base back to counter China, Experts say it’s unrealistic and dangerous

US President Donald Trump is once again making headlines with his push to “take back” Bagram air base in Afghanistan — the sprawling Soviet-built facility that once served as the hub of America’s two-decade war. But military officials and experts warn that the plan is unrealistic, risky, and based on shaky claims about China.

“We Want That Base Back”

Speaking at a press conference in London alongside UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Trump said, “One of the biggest airbases in the world. We gave it to them for nothing. We’re trying to get it back because they need things from us. We want that base back. It’s an hour away from where China makes its nuclear weapons.”

For Trump, Bagram’s supposed proximity to China’s nuclear programme is the key argument.

A Re-Invasion in Disguise

But according to Reuters, US officials say retaking Bagram would look less like a strategic move and more like a re-invasion. One official estimated it would require more than 10,000 troops, advanced air defences, and a costly rebuild of a base America abandoned in 2021.

Even then, the official added, Bagram would sit as an isolated US enclave in a landlocked country — highly vulnerable to rocket fire and insurgent attacks. “I don’t see how this can realistically happen,” the source told Reuters.

Trump’s China Argument Doesn’t Add Up

Trump has repeatedly insisted that Bagram’s value lies in its proximity to China’s nuclear weapons. But The Financial Times reports that experts dismiss this claim.

Dennis Wilder, a former CIA official, said Trump was likely referring to Lop Nur, a nuclear testing site in western China. While a modern jet fighter could cover the 2,000-kilometre distance from Bagram in about an hour, Wilder pointed out that China’s nuclear production facilities are actually located further inland, nowhere near Afghanistan.

In short, the “strategic advantage” Trump touts doesn’t exist.

Beijing Pushes Back

Even China has weighed in. Asked about Trump’s remarks, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said Beijing “respects Afghanistan’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity,” and warned that “stoking tensions and creating confrontation in the region wins no popular support.”

That is diplomatic shorthand for calling Trump’s plan reckless.

Taliban Consent? Unlikely

Trump has suggested that the U.S. might regain Bagram with Taliban consent. But FT reports there is no evidence of a serious plan. While Trump’s envoys have visited Kabul for talks on prisoner swaps and investments, a Senate aide told the paper that Congress has heard only “rumours” — no briefings, no details, nothing official.

And even if the Taliban agreed, the risks remain severe. U.S. forces would still face threats from ISIS and Al Qaeda inside Afghanistan, not to mention potential missile attacks from Iran.

Experts: Risks Outweigh Benefits

A former senior U.S. defence official told Reuters bluntly: “I don’t think there’s a particular military advantage to being up there.”

For critics, Trump’s fixation on Bagram is less about strategy and more about political theatre. At best, it is a headline-grabbing stunt. At worst, experts say, it is a costly fantasy that could drag America back into Afghanistan — for no clear gain.

– Ends