The United States is at “real risk” of falling behind China in the race for lunar dominance, experts cautioned lawmakers during a pivotal Senate Commerce Committee hearing.

The session, titled “There’s a Bad Moon on the Rise,” highlighted growing concerns that delays, wavering political commitment, and budget uncertainty could jeopardise America’s leadership off Earth, with NASA’s Artemis program standing at the heart of the debate.

Committee Chairman Republican Senator Ted Cruz sounded the alarm, emphasising that American dominance in space hinges on keeping the Artemis program on track.

Witnesses, including former NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine and industry leaders, described China’s systematic advances, such as successful abort-system tests and moon lander demonstrations, evidence of Beijing’s unwavering commitment to lunar exploration.

Experts stressed that the nation landing on the moon first will set the rules for resource use, governance, and future international space partnerships.

China’s “grand strategy” for the Earth-moon system, enforced through government consistency and clarity of purpose, was identified as a key advantage over the US, where shifting political priorities threaten long-term ambitions.

NASA’s Artemis program, powered by the Space Launch System (SLS) and Orion crew capsule, remains the world’s only operational human-rated super heavy rocket. However, concerns loom over the reliance on SpaceX’s Starship as the lunar lander for Artemis 3. While Starship passed recent flight tests, its operational readiness, especially in-orbit refuelling and uncrewed moon landings, lags behind China’s projected timeline, casting doubt on the US ability to keep pace.

The committee also debated funding for Gateway, Artemis’s planned lunar orbit space station, after its cancellation in the 2026 presidential budget.

Congress provisionally restored $750 million per year, underscoring Gateway as essential for sustainable exploration and international investment. Lawmakers worried that abandoning Gateway could drive global partners into China’s orbit, undermining decades of US leadership.

At stake, the experts warned, is not just technological supremacy but a generation-defining shift in international alliances, economic innovation, and national security.

“If our adversaries achieve dominant space capabilities, it would pose a profound risk to America,” Cruz concluded, capturing the urgency underpinning the new moon race.

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