India is the world’s largest democracy and the home of over 1.4 billion people, where many expect the next major conflict to erupt. For the past quarter-century, US-India relations have generally been marked by mutual respect and shared goals. That dynamic, however, appears to be shifting under US President Donald Trump.
The US President has taken an aggressive stance towards Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, despite their similarities as populist leaders.
“Trump, for reasons that remain hazy, has taken a particularly aggressive posture toward New Delhi and the Modi government, even though he and the populist Modi are both alike in many ways,” Newsweek politics editor Carlo Versano writes.
TRADE TENSIONS RISE WITH STEEP US LEVIES ON INDIA
One major flashpoint is trade. The White House recently announced that tariffs on Indian goods will double from 25 per cent to 50 per cent next week, among the steepest levies imposed on any US trading partner.
India has steadily lowered its average tariff rate from 56 per cent in 1990 to under 5 per cent today. “Why Trump believes bullying the developing world is appropriate behavior for a global hegemon remains one of the more puzzling questions of his trade agenda,” Versano notes.
Trump has justified the move as punishment for India’s continued purchases of Russian oil. Former hedge fund manager Scott Bessent recently accused New Delhi of “profiteering” from the Ukraine war by buying discounted Russian crude, refining it, and reselling it.
Versano pushed back: “Isn’t that just good business, capitalising on the dynamics of the market? It’s a bit rich for Bessent to be complaining about ‘opportunistic arbitrage.'”
Geopolitics adds another layer. After brokering a ceasefire between India and Pakistan following a deadly terror attack in Kashmir, Trump was publicly thanked by Islamabad and even nominated for the Nobel Prize.
However, India dismissed any suggestion of foreign mediation. “It seems like Trump has noted this affront to the peacemaker-in-chief persona he is trying to cultivate and is retaliating as such,” Versano argues.
ANTI-INDIAN SENTIMENT AMONG MAGA SUPPORTERS?
There is also a cultural undertone. According to Versano, anti-Indian sentiment runs deep among parts of Trump’s MAGA base, fuelled by grievances over H-1B visas and perceptions that Indian workers are displacing American tech jobs. “The racism and xenophobia toward Indians coming from the MAGA grassroots is pretty shocking and I am not easily shocked,” he writes.
At the same time, Trump is extending a warmer hand to Pakistan, inviting its military leadership to Washington despite Islamabad’s ties to Beijing, it’s past harbouring of Osama bin Laden, and its role in the Taliban’s return to power in Kabul. “We’re taking a hostile posture toward our actual friends in a very strategically important region, where we need all the help we can get to counter China’s rise,” Versano says.
For now, India remains publicly restrained in its response. But Trump’s tariffs, his tilt toward Pakistan, and the broader political messaging behind them may complicate what has been one of the US’s most important partnerships of the 21st century.
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