The intense rain in Mumbai over the past few days, particularly from August 16 to 19, is primarily driven by a cocktail of weather systems. These systems are amplifying the ongoing southwest monsoon system.

TWO SYSTEMS BRINGING IN MOISTURE

The heavy downpour has been triggered by a low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal, combined with an east-west trough over the Arabian Sea. These synoptic conditions have enhanced moisture influx from both systems, leading to prolonged and intense precipitation across the region, especially Mumbai.

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These have led to persistent heavy rain, with the financial capital experiencing “extremely heavy” showers that exceeded 200 mm in 24 hours at some of the stations.

HOW IS IT DIFFERENT FROM MONSOON RAIN?

Unlike standard monsoon showers, which are often intermittent, the continuous rainfall is due to the trough’s stationary nature. The static system allows moisture-laden winds to sustain cloud formation over the region for days.

In seasonal terms, August is Mumbai’s second-wettest month, with rainfall averaging around 560-620 mm and frequent thunderstorms driven by the monsoon’s active phase. However, this spell is exceptional. It started on August 15 evening and is still continuing.

In more than 80 hours, the city accumulated 550 mm of rain, which is equivalent to nearly a full month’s rainfall.

RAINS AND IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Similar episodes have been witnessed in Mumbai earlier also. Like the 2005 floods, when 944 mm of rain was recorded in a single day.

However, the ongoing occurrence is notable for its multi-day persistence rather than a single extreme burst. Climate experts often link such intensified events to warming oceans, which boost atmospheric moisture capacity. However, direct attribution to climate change requires long-term data analysis beyond this isolated incident.

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